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US FISCAL: FY2024 Deficit Set To Edge Up Vs 2023 In Line With CBO Estimate (1/2)

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The final monthly Budget Statement of the last fiscal year is due out Thursday (though unconfirmed, official guidance is that it is out at 2:00 PM on the 8th business day of each month). Early median consensus is for a $21B deficit in the month, after a surprisingly high $380B deficit in August (the largest shortfall in 23 months). That would be only the second monthly surplus this year, after April, coinciding with key tax dates. There is a wide range of estimates though, from -$262B to +$150B, with an average of negative $64B. Recall that September's deficit was $90B larger than consensus expectations.

  • The Congressional Budget Office's June fiscal update estimated estimated $4.89T in revenues versus $6.81T of outlays for a deficit of $1.92T for full FY2024 (Oct-Sep).  Through the first 11 months of the fiscal year, expenditures have totaled $6.29T and revenues $4.39T for a deficit just under $1.9T.
  • A September budget balance close to consensus would leave the 12-month balance at around $1.9T, so not far off the CBO's June forecast.
  • MNI's rough calculation is that the deficit as a percentage of GDP will be 6.6% for the full fiscal year, a little below the CBO's 6.7% forecast (and mainly due to slightly stronger-than-anticipated nominal economic growth), up from 6.3% in FY2023.
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The final monthly Budget Statement of the last fiscal year is due out Thursday (though unconfirmed, official guidance is that it is out at 2:00 PM on the 8th business day of each month). Early median consensus is for a $21B deficit in the month, after a surprisingly high $380B deficit in August (the largest shortfall in 23 months). That would be only the second monthly surplus this year, after April, coinciding with key tax dates. There is a wide range of estimates though, from -$262B to +$150B, with an average of negative $64B. Recall that September's deficit was $90B larger than consensus expectations.

  • The Congressional Budget Office's June fiscal update estimated estimated $4.89T in revenues versus $6.81T of outlays for a deficit of $1.92T for full FY2024 (Oct-Sep).  Through the first 11 months of the fiscal year, expenditures have totaled $6.29T and revenues $4.39T for a deficit just under $1.9T.
  • A September budget balance close to consensus would leave the 12-month balance at around $1.9T, so not far off the CBO's June forecast.
  • MNI's rough calculation is that the deficit as a percentage of GDP will be 6.6% for the full fiscal year, a little below the CBO's 6.7% forecast (and mainly due to slightly stronger-than-anticipated nominal economic growth), up from 6.3% in FY2023.