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US Gas at 2.7$/mmbtu in 2024 as Cold Jan Offsets Mild Dec: Goldman

NATGAS

End of January US natural gas storage is expected nearly unchanged relative to previous expectations from early December as a $2.70/mmbtu Bal-2024 US gas price forecast is maintained according to Goldman Sachs.

  • Colder weather in the US in January as well as stronger than expected power burns and LNG exports offsets the mild December and high US production.
  • End of Oct 2024 storage has been softened by 105bcf to 4060bcf as higher near term prices have partly lifted forward prices driving a drop in forward C2G substitution.
  • US gas production will be the primary driver of US gas prices this year with above average production a downside risk to the price forecast.
  • Lower prices would incentivize stronger C2G and potentially steeper Haynesville production declines.

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