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US Gasoline Prices Surge Amid Refinery Disruptions and Low Stocks

OIL PRODUCTS

US gasoline cracks are holding steady so far this week after a rally from around 34$/bbl to 40.2$/bbl during July. US RBOB front month last week reached the highest since October at nearly 3.0$/gal to help drive US retail pump prices to the highest since November at 3.714$/gal according to AAA.

  • Summer heat has limited gasoline output and contributed an unusual number of refinery breakdowns this year after deferred maintenance from last year and added to low inventory levels.
  • The threat to operations from June and July heat prompted refiners to curtail oil processing by at least 2% globally according to Vikas Dwivedi at Macquarie. “The ability to cool the tower overhead can become a constraint at high ambient temperatures,” Dwivedi said.
  • Global refiners processed 82.5mbpd in July, down from an earlier estimate of 84mbpd according to Macquarie data. Refineries may still hit target in August or early September as new plants in Asia and the Middle East ramp up.
  • US refineries are struggling to return to peak utilization rates and high-temperature forecasts into August could continue to limit refinery gasoline output at the end of the summer driving season ahead of the upcoming Autumn turnaround season.


Source: Bloomberg

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