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US: Governor Tim Walz Tipped To Win Veep Debate Against Senator JD Vance

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21:00 ET 02:00 BST: Governor Tim Walz (D-MN) and Senator JD Vance (R-OH) will meet for the only vice-presidential debate of the cycle. LIVESTREAM

  • The 90-minute event will be unusually high-profile for a veep debate. With Biden’s exit from the race, and Trump’s refusal to commit to another presidential debate, tonight’s encounter will likely be the last opportunity to see the two tickets in action on the debate stage. 
  • The prevailing view is Vance has more to gain from the debate. His favourability rating is lower than Walz’s and his campaign has been littered with high-profile gaffs and ‘extreme’ statements that have been widely shared on social media.
  • Vance has ironed out some of his missteps, reigning in an impulse to speak on policy without Trump’s explicit endorsement: “I’ve learned my lesson on speaking for the president before he and I have actually talked about an issue.” 
  • Walz will draw Vance into articulating hardline positions on reproductive rights, Haitian immigrants, and ‘childless cat ladies,’ and is likely to bring up Vance’s previous critical statements on Trump.
  • Vance will portray Walz as a flip-flopping liberal who has a ‘far left agenda’ on conservative priorities like border security and crime. Vance’s surrogates have recently described Walz as a “Minnesota Gavin Newsom,” referring to the California Governor who is derided in conservative circles.
  • Walz has a clear edge in experience. Vance was widely considered to have underperformed in his 2022 Senate win. Polymarket gives Walz a 72% implied probability of winning the debate.
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21:00 ET 02:00 BST: Governor Tim Walz (D-MN) and Senator JD Vance (R-OH) will meet for the only vice-presidential debate of the cycle. LIVESTREAM

  • The 90-minute event will be unusually high-profile for a veep debate. With Biden’s exit from the race, and Trump’s refusal to commit to another presidential debate, tonight’s encounter will likely be the last opportunity to see the two tickets in action on the debate stage. 
  • The prevailing view is Vance has more to gain from the debate. His favourability rating is lower than Walz’s and his campaign has been littered with high-profile gaffs and ‘extreme’ statements that have been widely shared on social media.
  • Vance has ironed out some of his missteps, reigning in an impulse to speak on policy without Trump’s explicit endorsement: “I’ve learned my lesson on speaking for the president before he and I have actually talked about an issue.” 
  • Walz will draw Vance into articulating hardline positions on reproductive rights, Haitian immigrants, and ‘childless cat ladies,’ and is likely to bring up Vance’s previous critical statements on Trump.
  • Vance will portray Walz as a flip-flopping liberal who has a ‘far left agenda’ on conservative priorities like border security and crime. Vance’s surrogates have recently described Walz as a “Minnesota Gavin Newsom,” referring to the California Governor who is derided in conservative circles.
  • Walz has a clear edge in experience. Vance was widely considered to have underperformed in his 2022 Senate win. Polymarket gives Walz a 72% implied probability of winning the debate.