US: Harris Leads Trump By One Point, CNN/SSRS Poll

A new CNN/SSRS survey shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by a razor-thin one-percentage-point margin among likely voters nationwide.

• CNN notes in analysis of the survey data that Harris’ support rests on, "stronger personal appeal, while Trump draws on a die-hard base and a wide advantage on handling the economy to run about even despite less positive views of him..."
• The CNN poll is the latest survey to indicate a tightening of the national vote, despite signs that Harris may be strengthening in the northern swing states and Trump strengthening in the Sun Belt swing states.
• Nate Cohen at the New York Times noted yesterday: "The race remains very close in the key battleground states, with neither candidate leading by three percentage points or more in any of the seven states likeliest to decide the presidency. If the polls were to stay this tight until November, it would be the first election since 2004 when the polls were this close in the pivotal states."
• Nate Silver's forecast model gives Harris a 54% implied probability of winning, due to recent strong polling in the Rust Belt: "She now leads by 2.4 points in our average of Michigan, 2.2 in Wisconsin, and 1.6 points in Pennsylvania."  
• Betting markets continue to lean slightly towards Harris. According to ElectionBettingOdds, Harris has a 52.8% implied probability of winning. 

Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Voting Intention