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US Oil Output Slows But Holding Up Better than Natgas: Reuters Kemp

ENERGY

US oil production continues to grow even as natural gas starts to turn down, with the diverging fortunes for the two sectors reflecting the much steeper slump in gas prices and drilling activity since mid-2022.

  • Crude and condensate output from the lower 48 states rose to 10.99m b/d in April, according to the EIA, the third fastest rate on record.
  • The moderate decline in prices since the monthly average of $124/b in June 2022 has caused oil rigs to decline by 22% over the same period. This has allowed production to grow, although at a slower rate.
  • In contrast, gas prices have slumped, causing a sharper 40% fall in gas rigs since Sep. 2022.
  • Inflation adjusted futures prices plunged from an average of over $9/MMBtu in August 2022 to a record low of $1.76/MMBtu in Feb. 2024.
  • Lower production should gradually rebalance the market and eliminate excess inventories inherited from the mild winter of 2023/24. However, this may take longer than previously anticipated.
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