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US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Jobless Claims Ahead

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Jobless claims data are in focus ahead at 0830ET, with initial claims covering a payrolls reference period. 
  • The two releases since the July payrolls report on Aug 2 surprised lower, importantly showing no sign of additional labor market cooling. 
  • Any continued Hurricane Beryl impact should be minimal. Texas claims dropped to 18.5k in last week’s release for another step closer to the ~15k typically seen at this time of year. They were 25.7k in the prior payrolls reference period (the week of Beryl’s landfall) and peaked at 31.7k the following week. 
  • The four-week average of initial claims will no longer include those peak Beryl-impacted weeks (although will still be biased a little higher) and should be watched to see how it compares with a prior run rate of 234k for the four weeks to Jul 6. 
  • We’ll also watch whether NSA continuing claims continue to track right at the top of typical ranges in the three years prior to the pandemic or whether they show any sign of more notable increases. 
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