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US OUTLOOK/OPINION: JPM - Housing-Related Inflation To Remain Relatively Sticky

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
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  • JPMorgan forecast core CPI at 0.29% M/M in September.
  • “We still look for housing-related inflation to remain relatively sticky", eyeing OER cooling to 0.38% M/M and tenant's rents to 0.33% M/M. "That should keep these two closely watched measures running around 5% on an annual basis, which is still a good 1.5 to 2 percentage points above its pre-pandemic average pace.”
  • “Industry data also point to a further modest increase in lodging prices, after a strong surge in August.”
  • They also expect "fairly firm airfares" whilst "[t]ransportation demand appears to remain fairly firm against still-binding constraints on supply.”
  • “Elsewhere in the CPI, we look for moderate rises in new and used vehicle prices in September, based on industry data (after seasonal adjustment), and for small 0.1% monthly declines in both apparel and communication equipment.”
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  • JPMorgan forecast core CPI at 0.29% M/M in September.
  • “We still look for housing-related inflation to remain relatively sticky", eyeing OER cooling to 0.38% M/M and tenant's rents to 0.33% M/M. "That should keep these two closely watched measures running around 5% on an annual basis, which is still a good 1.5 to 2 percentage points above its pre-pandemic average pace.”
  • “Industry data also point to a further modest increase in lodging prices, after a strong surge in August.”
  • They also expect "fairly firm airfares" whilst "[t]ransportation demand appears to remain fairly firm against still-binding constraints on supply.”
  • “Elsewhere in the CPI, we look for moderate rises in new and used vehicle prices in September, based on industry data (after seasonal adjustment), and for small 0.1% monthly declines in both apparel and communication equipment.”