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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
- Core non-housing service inflation is expected to see at least a repeat of the 0.21% M/M from July, with six analysts between 0.20-0.35% M/M.
- This CPI “supercore” happened to be exactly in line with its PCE counterpart in July (also 0.21% M/M prior to typical monthly revisions) although that is rare. CPI supercore was far weaker before that, averaging -0.05% through May-June vs 0.145% M/M for PCE supercore but as the chart shows there is no typical spread between the two on a M/M basis.
- The extent to which surprises are driven by CPI-specific items will again help shape market reaction here (with potentially offsetting factors from a sequential boost expected from airfares and a drag from vehicle insurance). PPI reverts to its more typical post-CPI release.
- Nevertheless, expect sensitivity to a return of particularly soft supercore CPI readings, after just 0.5% annualized in the three-months to July.
- The lowest analyst estimate of 0.2% M/M for August would see 1.4% annualized for the three-month whilst the six-month would continue its swift moderation with 2.8% after 3.4%, matching last year’s low of 2.8% in Aug’23 having accelerated to a high of 6.5% in Apr’24 in the interim.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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