MNI: SPAIN NOV MANUF PMI 53.1 (FCST 54.0); OCT 54.5

MNI BRIEF: Japan Q3 GDP To Be Slightly Revised Down

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY216 Bln via OMO Monday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1865 Mon; -1.50% Y/Y

MNI: China CFETS Yuan Index Up 0.01% In Week of Nov 29

MNI BRIEF: PBOC Added Outright Repo For Ample Lqdty In Nov

MNI: AUSTRALIA Q3 BIZ INDICATORS INVENTORIES -0.9%

MNI: AUSTRALIA OCT BUILDING APPROVALS +4.2% M/M, +6.1% Y/Y

MNI: AUSTRALIA NOV DWELLING APPROVALS +4.2% M/M

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

US OUTLOOK/OPINION: TD: U/E Rate Is Currently Most Reliable Labor Indicator

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America

The most hawkish of primary analysts, TD Securities look for firm NFP growth of 205k in August in a recovery after the surprisingly soft July.

  • “Given the payrolls signal carries large uncertainty with it, starting with the fact that the series has likely been overstating strength over the past year (see the preliminary benchmark revision), the unemployment rate has taken the role of the most reliable labor market indicator at this stage. In that context, the UE rate will likely take precedent this time around. We expect the series to recede by a tenth to 4.2% after posting an unexpected two-tenth jump to 4.3% in July — its highest level since Q4 2021.”
  • “If our forecasts are realized, Fed officials will likely start the easing cycle with a 25bp rate reduction in September. A 50bp rate-cut would likely entail less supportive news on the unemployment rate. Another increase in the series could argue for a larger rate cut than we're currently anticipating.”
  • “Remarks from President Williams (8:45am EDT) and Governor Waller (11am EDT) post-August jobs report are likely to provide a final stamp of approval on the FOMC's rate decision due in two weeks time.”
193 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

The most hawkish of primary analysts, TD Securities look for firm NFP growth of 205k in August in a recovery after the surprisingly soft July.

  • “Given the payrolls signal carries large uncertainty with it, starting with the fact that the series has likely been overstating strength over the past year (see the preliminary benchmark revision), the unemployment rate has taken the role of the most reliable labor market indicator at this stage. In that context, the UE rate will likely take precedent this time around. We expect the series to recede by a tenth to 4.2% after posting an unexpected two-tenth jump to 4.3% in July — its highest level since Q4 2021.”
  • “If our forecasts are realized, Fed officials will likely start the easing cycle with a 25bp rate reduction in September. A 50bp rate-cut would likely entail less supportive news on the unemployment rate. Another increase in the series could argue for a larger rate cut than we're currently anticipating.”
  • “Remarks from President Williams (8:45am EDT) and Governor Waller (11am EDT) post-August jobs report are likely to provide a final stamp of approval on the FOMC's rate decision due in two weeks time.”