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US TSY FLOWS: US rates had a hard time deciding which way they wanted to trade
after the second consecutive blow-out employ release. Jan payrolls very strong
+304k vs. +167k expected, but sharp downward rev to Dec (+222k vs +312k prev).
Equities choppy all session, uncertain whether good data brings Fed back in
play, or will Fed let economy run hot before tapping policy brake.
- Program selling evident after the number, but bids took up the shock driving
futures back in line, decent two-way ensued. Sellers resumed after StL Fed
Bullard comments re: data dependency, strength of economy. Wasn't until flurry
of mid-morning data (ISM PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX 56.6 JAN VS 54.3 DEC; U-Mich;
Construction spending) that rate sellers really found their motivation.
- Curves bear flattened for the most part, heavy selling in 5s and 10s, 5s30s
steepener unwinds, fast- and real$ selling intermediates, bank portfolio selling
30s. Little deal-tied hedging, but mkts will absorb 3s, 10s and 30Y bond supply
next week. Heavy option volume, interest in buying upside calls to hedge global
slow-down, potential for rate cuts remains strong. Tsy cash/ylds: 2Y 99-31
(2.514%), 5Y 99-29.75 (2.513%), 10Y 103-22 (2.691%), 30Y 106-22.5 (3.031%).