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JGB TECHS

(U1) Tilted Higher

AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(U1) Uptrend Weakening

US TSYS SUMMARY

Bullard Kickstarts Reflation Unwind Theme

AUDUSD TECHS

Fresh 2021 Lows

US: Recap of Economic Indicators

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 22:06 GMT Feb 11/17:06 EST Feb 11
                             Feb-19   Jan-19   Dec-18   Nov-18   Oct-18   Sep-18
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UI Claims/4wk avg
wk 1                        234/225  216/222  206/225  221/217  215/210  204/208
wk 2                                 212/221  217/223  224/219  210/212  202/206
wk 3                                 200/215  221/220  234/223  216/212  215/206
wk 4                                 253/220  233/219  231/228  215/214  207/207
wk 5                                                            214/214
Nonfarm Payrolls                       +304k    +222k    +196k    +277k    +108k
Private Payrolls                       +296k    +206k    +200k    +285k    +108k
Mfg Payroll                             +13k     +20k     +27k     +29k     +18k
Unemployment                            4.0%     3.9%     3.7%     3.8%     3.7%
Avg Wkly Hours                          34.5     34.5     34.5     34.5     34.4
Avg Hours - Mfg                         40.8     40.8     40.8     40.8     40.9
Aggr Hours Index                       +0.3%    +0.5%    -0.2%    +0.3%     Flat
Aggr Hrs Index - Mfg                   -0.1%    +0.3%    +0.2%     Flat    -0.1%
Avg Hourly Earnings                    +0.1%    +0.4%    +0.3%    +0.2%    +0.3%
Final Demand PPI                                -0.2%    +0.1%    +0.6%    +0.2%
excl food & energy                              -0.1%    +0.3%    +0.5%    +0.2%
excl food, energy, trade                         Flat    +0.3%    +0.2%    +0.4%
CPI                                              Flat     Flat    +0.3%    +0.1%
excl food & energy                              +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.2%
Import Prices                                   -1.0%    -1.9%    +0.5%    +0.1%
non-petro import prices                         +0.3%     Flat    +0.2%    +0.1%
ISM Mfg Prices Pd Index                 49.6     54.9     60.7     71.6     66.9
PCE Price Index M/M                                      +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.1%
PCE Price Index Y/Y                                      +1.8%    +2.0%    +2.0%
Core PCE Price Index M/M                                 +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.2%
Core PCE Price Index Y/Y                                 +1.9%    +1.8%    +2.0%
Treasury Budget (bn)                                   -$204.9  -$100.5  +$119.1
Consumer Credit (bn)                                    +$22.1   +$25.4   +$10.9
CB Consumer Confidence                 120.2    126.6    136.4    137.9    135.3
Consumer Sentiment                      91.2     98.3     97.5     98.6    100.1
Car Sales Ex GM,Ford, saar
(mn)                                     2.5      2.6      2.5      2.7      2.5
Truck Sales Ex GM,Ford,
Saar (mn)                                4.6      5.0      4.9      4.9      5.3
Total Ex GM,Ford, saar
(mn)                                     7.1      7.5      7.4      7.6      7.8
Retail Sales                                             +0.2%    +1.1%    -0.2%
excl motor vehicles                                      +0.2%    +1.0%    -0.3%
Personal Income                                          +0.2%    +0.5%     +0.2
Personal Spending                                        +0.3%    +0.6%     Flat
ISM Mfg Index                           56.6     54.3     58.8     57.5     59.5
ISM Nonmfg NMI                          56.7     58.0     60.4     60.0     60.8
MNI Chicago Report                      56.7     63.8     63.5     59.4     61.5
Phila Fed Mfg Index                     17.0      9.1     11.9     19.7     21.4
Phila Fed Nonmfg Index                   1.0      7.7     35.5     34.7     35.8
Empire State Index                       3.9     11.5     21.4     20.0     18.8
KC Fed Mfg Index                           5        6       17       10       13
Richmond Fed Mfg Index                    -2       -8       14       15       29
Dallas Fed Mfg Index                     1.0     -5.1     17.6     29.4     28.1
Markit Mfg Index                        54.9     53.8     55.4     55.7     55.6
Markit Services Index                   54.2     54.4     54.7     54.8     53.5
Ind Production                                  +0.3%    +0.4%    +0.2%    +0.1%
Capacity Util                                   78.7%    78.6%    78.4%    78.4%
Factory Orders                                           -0.6%    -2.1%    +0.2%
Factory Orders ex
transport                                                -1.3%    +0.2%    +0.1%
Durables                                                 +0.8%    -4.3%     Flat
Durables ex transport                                    -0.3%    +0.4%    -0.5%
Nondurables                                              -1.9%    +0.1%    +0.5%
Mfg Shipments                                                     -0.1%    +0.7%
Business Inventories                                              +0.6%    +0.5%
Factory                                                           +0.1%    +0.6%
Retail                                                            +0.8%    +0.1%
Wholesale                                                +0.3%    +0.9%    +0.7%
Housing Starts (mn)                                      1.256    1.217    1.237
Building Permits (mn)                                    1.322    1.265    1.270
NAHB Index                                58       56       60       60       68
New Home Sales (k)                                         657      562      597
Existing Homes (mn)                              4.99     5.32     5.22     5.15
Pending Home Sales Index                         99.0    101.2    102.1    104.8
Construct Spending                                       +0.8%    +0.1%    -1.8%
Private Residential                                       3.5%    -1.1%    -2.0%
Trade Balance (bn)                                      -$49.3   -$55.7   -$54.6
Exports (bn)                                           +$209.9  +$211.2  +$211.4
Imports (bn)                                           +$259.2  +$266.9  +$266.0
Goods Only, BOP (bn)                                    -$71.6   -$78.3   -$77.3
Leading Index                                   -0.1%    +0.2%    -0.3%    +0.5%
                                                                           Q3-18
GDP (chain-wt)                                                             +3.5%
Final Sales                                                                +1.2%
Chain prices                                                               +1.7%
Current-dollar                                                             +5.0%
                                                                           Q3-18
Nonfarm Productivity                                                       +2.3%
Nonfarm Unit Labor Costs                                                   +0.9%
                                                Q4-18                      Q3-18
ECI (q/q)                                       +0.7%                      +0.8%
(a) advance report
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]