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Fears for Economy Drive Crude Lower

WTI TECHS

(Q2) Bearish Threat Still Present

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Trend Structure Remains Bullish

GOLD TECHS

Support Remains Exposed

BUNDS

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(Q2) Bearish Focus

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US: Recap of Economic Indicators 

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 21:06 GMT Jun 18/17:06 EST Jun 18
                             Jun-19   May-19   Apr-19   Mar-19   Feb-19   Jan-19
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UI Claims/4wk avg
wk 1                        219/215  228/220  197/207  224/220  230/225  221/224
wk 2                        222/218  212/225  193/201  216/220  231/229  217/223
wk 3                                 212/221  230/206  212/217  213/229  211/220
wk 4                                 218/217  230/212  204/214  224/225  244/223
wk 5                                                            218/221
Nonfarm Payrolls                        +75k    +224k    +153k     +56k    +312k
Private Payrolls                        +90k    +205k    +153k     +46k    +297k
Mfg Payroll                              +3k      +5k      -3k      +8k     +17k
Unemployment                            3.6%     3.6%     3.8%     3.8%     4.0%
Avg Wkly Hours                          34.4     34.4     34.5     34.4     34.5
Avg Hours - Mfg                         40.6     40.6     40.7     40.7     40.8
Aggr Hours Index                       +0.1%    -0.2%    +0.5%    -0.3%    +0.3%
Aggr Hrs Index - Mfg                    Flat    -0.1%    -0.1%    -0.2%    -0.1%
Avg Hourly Earnings                    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.4%    +0.1%
Final Demand PPI                       +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.6%    +0.1%    -0.1%
excl food & energy                     +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.3%
excl food, energy, trade               +0.4%    +0.4%     Flat    +0.1%    +0.2%
CPI                                    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.4%    +0.2%     Flat
excl food & energy                     +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.2%
Import Prices                          -0.3%    +0.1%    +0.6%    +1.0%    +0.2%
non-petro import prices                -0.3%    -0.5%     Flat    +0.2%    -0.3%
ISM Mfg Prices Pd Index                          50.0     54.3     49.4     49.6
PCE Price Index M/M                             +0.3%    +0.2%    +0.1%    -0.1%
PCE Price Index Y/Y                             +1.5%    +1.4%    +1.3%    +1.3%
Core PCE Price Index M/M                        +0.2%    +0.1%     Flat     Flat
Core PCE Price Index Y/Y                        +1.6%    +1.5%    +1.6%    +1.8%
Treasury Budget (bn)                          -$207.8  +$160.3  -$146.9    +$8.7
Consumer Credit (bn)                           +$17.5   +$11.0   +$15.5   +$17.7
CB Consumer Confidence                 134.1    129.2    124.2    131.4    121.7
Consumer Sentiment             97.9    100.0     97.2     98.5     93.8     91.2
Car Sales Ex GM,Ford, saar
(mn)                                     2.3      2.3      2.6      2.4      2.5
Truck Sales Ex GM,Ford,
Saar (mn)                                5.3      4.8      5.0      4.7      4.6
Total Ex GM,Ford, saar
(mn)                                     7.6      7.1      7.6      7.1      7.1
Retail Sales                           +0.5%    +0.3%    +1.8%    -0.3%    +0.8%
excl motor vehicles                    +0.5%    +0.5%    +1.4%    -0.3%    +1.4%
Personal Income                                 +0.5%    +0.1%    +0.2%    -0.1%
Personal Spending                               +0.3%    +1.1%     Flat    +0.3%
ISM Mfg Index                           52.1     52.8     55.3     54.2     56.6
ISM Nonmfg NMI                          56.9     55.5     56.1     59.7     56.7
MNI Chicago Report                      54.2     52.6     58.7     64.7     56.7
Phila Fed Mfg Index                     16.6      8.5     13.7     -4.1     17.0
Phila Fed Nonmfg Index                  17.3     21.0     21.7     10.0      1.0
Empire State Index             -8.6     17.8     10.1      3.7      8.8      3.9
KC Fed Mfg Index                           4        5       10        1        5
Richmond Fed Mfg Index                     5        3       10       16       -2
Dallas Fed Mfg Index                    -5.3      2.0      6.9     11.6     -0.2
Markit Mfg Index                        50.6     52.4     52.4     53.0     54.9
Markit Services Index                   50.9     53.0     55.3     56.0     54.2
Ind Production                         +0.4%    -0.4%    +0.1%    -0.6%    -0.3%
Capacity Util                          78.1%    77.9%    78.4%    78.4%    79.1%
Factory Orders                                  -0.8%    +1.3%    -1.0%    +0.1%
Factory Orders ex
transport                                       +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.3%    -0.2%
Durables                                        -2.1%    +1.7%    -2.6%    +0.5%
Durables ex transport                            Flat    -0.5%    -0.3%    +0.1%
Nondurables                                     +0.5%    +0.9%    +0.7%    -0.4%
Mfg Shipments                                   -0.5%    +0.2%    +0.3%    -0.2%
Business Inventories                            +0.5%     Flat    +0.3%    +0.9%
Factory                                         +0.3%    +0.4%    +0.3%    +0.5%
Retail                                          +0.5%    -0.3%    +0.3%    +0.8%
Wholesale                                       +0.8%     Flat    +0.4%    +1.2%
Housing Starts (mn)                    1.269    1.281    1.199    1.149    1.291
Building Permits (mn)                  1.294    1.290    1.288    1.291    1.317
NAHB Index                       64       66       63       62       62       58
New Home Sales (k)                                673      723      669      644
Existing Homes (mn)                              5.19     5.21     5.48     4.93
Pending Home Sales Index                        104.3    105.9    101.9    103.2
Construct Spending                               Flat    +0.1%    +1.0%    +0.7%
Private Residential                             -0.6%    -1.2%    -0.7%    -2.9%
Trade Balance (bn)                             -$50.8   -$51.9   -$50.0   -$52.7
Exports (bn)                                  +$206.8  +$211.4  +$209.6  +$207.4
Imports (bn)                                  +$257.6  +$263.3  +$259.7  +$260.1
Goods Only, BOP (bn)                           -$71.7   -$72.7   -$70.8   -$73.0
Leading Index                                   +0.2%    +0.3%    +0.1%     Flat
                                                         Q1-19
GDP (chain-wt)                                           +3.1%
Final Sales                                              +2.5%
Chain prices                                             +0.8%
Current-dollar                                           +3.6%
                                                         Q1-19
Nonfarm Productivity                                     +3.4%
Nonfarm Unit Labor Costs                                 -1.6%
                                                         Q1-19
ECI (q/q)                                                +0.7%
(a) advance report
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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