US to Weigh Further Venezuela Sanctions on Voting Transparency

Venezuela’s electoral body has formally declared Nicolas Maduro as the winner of the country’s disputed presidential election, giving him a third six-year term.

• The move follows both Maduro and the country’s opposition claiming victory yesterday, with expressions of doubt as to whether the election was free and fair.
• The US will determine whether to install future sanctions on the Bolivarian Republic based on whether Maduro’s government released voting data. The votes did not track exit polling or independent data seen by the US.
• The US pulled a general license allowing for access to Venezuela’s oil and gas industry in April. However, it still grants exemptions to the license on a case-by-case basis.
• The current deal still allows the heavy sour barrels to continue flowing onto the market, albeit with additional frictions.
• While Venezuela’s oil production remains only a fraction of global supply – around 0.9m b/d - the Biden administration will be reluctant to further disrupt oil flows in an election year, due to its repercussions for domestic prices and inflation.