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US Tsys are edging higher ahead.....>
US TSYS SUMMARY: US Tsys are edging higher ahead of payrolls with the longer end
- 2-yr Tsy yield is 1.2bp higher at 2.439%, 5-yr +2.5bp at 2.723%, while 10s is
+3.1bp at 2.8695% and 30-yr +0.2bp at 3.051%.
- There is a very slight tendency for consensus to overestimate NFP, although
historically in May there is no bias in either direction. The consensus range
for May is 150-250k. Although the market would react to an NFP print close to
these limits, we would only expect a number closer to 300k or towards 100k as
having lasting traction.
- While NFP remains one of the most important data points, the Federal Reserve's
current willingness to normalise monetary policy in the face of less than
favourable economic developments suggests that a scenario in which NFP is weak
but wages strong would be net hawkish for monetary policy.
- The eurodollar curve continues to steepen with green/blue contracts down 5-7
ticks compared to 1-4 ticks in the whites.
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