US TSYS: HAVE TSYS CURVES BOTTOMED OUT YET? MAYBE NOT

US TSY SUMMARY: Tsys traded lower Wednesday, extending session lows in late

trade while yld curves continued to flatten (off lows late w/2s10s blipping

marginally steeper, dead-cat bounce). US$ index higher (DXY +.115, 89.631;

US$/YEN>107.26); equities higher (emini +9.0, 2715.5); gold firmer (XAU +1.25,

1348.72); West Texas crude surged (WTI +2.01, 68.53) on inventory reductions and

Saudi Arabia looking at $100/Brl target.

- Little react to limited data, Fed Biege Book: outlook positive despite

tariffs-Fed Survey.

- Fed speak: SF Fed Pres Williams conceded curve inversion "is a powerful

recession sign", but downplayed chances as US economy will enter "second largest

expansion" due to global factors soon! Tall order given as core inflation has

yet to reach 2% on core PCE. StL Fed Pres Bullard stated mkts NOT seeing much

inflation pressure while yld curves COULD invert in next 6 months. 

- Heavier mixed option flow, w/2-way in puts some profit taking sales, call

buying fading the sell-off.

- Late ylds: 2Y 2.427%, 3Y 2.572%, 5Y 2.731%, 7Y 2.827%, 10Y 2.869%, 30Y 3.052%

US TSY FUTURES CLOSE: Treasury futures trading near session lows at close,

curves mostly flatter Curve update:

* 2s10s +0.588, 43.629 (43.813H/41.141L);

* 2s30s -0.506, 61.665 (62.540H/58.076L);

* 5s30s -1.778, 31.226 (33.034H/29.021L);

Current futures levels:

* Jun Ultra bonds down 1-17/32 at 158-10 (158-10L/159-18H)

* Jun 30-yr Bond futures down 1-06/32 at 144-27 (144-25L/145-27H)

* Jun 10-yr futures down 14/32 at 120-04 (120-03.50L/120-16.50H)

* Jun 5-yr futures down 8/32 at 113-23 (113-22.25L/113-30.25H)

* Jun 2-yr futures down 2.50/32 at 106-02 (106-01.5L/106-04H)

US EURODOLLAR FUTURES CLOSE: Euro dollar futures trading at/near session lows.

Current

White pack (Jun'18-Mar'19):

* Jun'18 -0.015 at 97.620

* Sep'18 -0.025 at 97.510

* Dec'18 -0.030 at 97.380

* Jun'19 -0.035 at 97.275

* Red pack (Jun'19-Mar'20) -0.035-0.050

* Green pack (Jun'20-Mar'21) -0.045-0.055

* Blue pack (Jun'21-Mar'21) -0.055

* Gold pack (Jun'22-Mar'22) -0.055

US DOLLAR LIBOR: Latest settles, 

* O/N +0.0013 to 1.7050% (+0.0031/wk) 

* 1 Month +0.0014 to 1.8970% (+0.0015/wk)

* 3 Month +0.0032 to 2.3586% (+0.0058/wk)

* 6 Month +0.0019 to 2.5031% (+0.0131/wk)

* 1 Year +0.0015 to 2.7475% (+0.0174/wk)

REPO REFERENCE RATES: (rate, volume)

* Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): down to 1.76% vs. 1.77% prior, $729B

* Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): steady at 1.70%, $341B

* Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): steady at 1.70%, $331B

US SWAPS: Spds running tighter, short end lead move amid expected issuance from

Goldman Sachs among others today. Earlier flow includes: $83.5k DV01 2Y-5Y

FLATTENER, $138.5k DV01 2Y-10Y STEEPENER, $277k 2Y-3Y-10Y Fly, receiving the

belly, $500M Switch 1Y 2.532/2.531 and smaller switch in 2s. Latest spd levels:

* 2Y  -0.62/28.44

* 5Y  -0.75/11.75

* 10Y -0.50/3.00

* 30Y -0.25/-12.75

PIPELINE: Fast launch/pricing of $1.5B EIB 7Y, waiting on details of GS 2-parter

Date $MM Issuer/Rating/Desc/Maturity/Yld/Leads; Priced *; Launch #:

04/18 $1.5B *EIB 7Y +14

04/18 $Benchmark Goldman Sachs 11NC10 +145a, 21NC20 +145a

04/18 $300M Guardian Life 5Y +80a

OUTLOOK: Data/speaker calendar (prior, estimate): 

- Apr 19 Fed Gov Brainard, 2018 Global Finance Forum, D.C., Q&A.

- Apr 19 14-Apr jobless claims (233K, 230K) 0830ET 

- Apr 19 Apr Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index (22.3, 21.0) 0830ET 

- Apr 19 Fed Vice Chair/Supervision Gov Quarles semi-annual testimony before

Senate Banking Comm, 0930ET

- Apr 19 15-Apr Bloomberg comfort index 0945ET 

- Apr 19 Mar leading indicators (0.6%, 0.3) 1000ET 

- Apr 19 13-Apr natural gas stocks w/w (-19Bcf, --) 1030ET 

- Apr 19 5Y TIPS Auction 1300ET 

- Apr 19 18-Apr Fed weekly securities holdings 1630ET 

- Apr 19 Clev Fed Pres Mester, Univ of Pittsburgh/Joseph M. Katz Graduate School

of Business and Deloitte LLP in Pittsburgh, Q&A. 1845ET

Eurodollar/Treasury Option Summary

Eurodollar options, Pit/screen:

* -4,000 Red Sep'19 71 straddles, 45.0

* +10,000 Sep 73 puts, 3.0

* Update, total +25,000 Dec 70/71 put spds, 1.75

UPDATE: 50,000 Jun 75 put, 0.7 vs 9759.5-60/0.05%

UPDATE: 7,000 Dec 73/76 put sprd, 17.0 vs 9737/0.28%

UPDATE: 12,500 Dec 70/71 put 2x1, 0.5

* 5,000 Green Dec 65/67 put 3x2, 6.0 vs 9706/0.12%

* 7,500 Dec 70/71 put 2x1, 0.5

* 5,000 Dec 73/76 put sprd, 17.0 vs 9737/0.28%

* 3,000 Short Jun 71 Straddle at 16.5

* 3,000 short Jun 72 Straddle at 17.5

* 15,000 Green Dec 65/67 3x2 put sprd, 6.0 vs 9706/0.12%

UPDATE: 20,000 Jun 76/77 put sprd, 9.0 vs 9763/0.10%

UPDATE: 75,000 Blues Jun 67 put, 2.0 vs 9704/0.14%

UPDATE: 40,000 Jun 75 put, 0.7 vs 9759.5/0.05%

* 10,000 Jun 75 put, 0.7 vs 9759.5/0.05%

* 10,000 Blue Jun 67 put, 2.0 vs 9704/0.15%

* 2,000 Green Dec/Blue Dec 70 straddle strip, 85.5 (42.5/43 respectively)

*4,000 Sep 72/75 put sprd, 6.5

*4,000 Sep 76/77 call sprd, 2.0

* 10,000 Mar 68/70 put sprd, 2.5 vs 9727/0.10%

* +10,000 Sep 72/73 put sprd, 2.0

* 10,000 Jun 76/77 put spds, 9.0

* -10,000 short Sep 66 puts, 1.0

* 12,500 Mar 70 puts, 4.5 vs. 97.275

* 5,000 Mar 70/71 put spds, 4.0 vs. 97.265/0.13%

* 1,750 Jun 76/77/78 1x3x2 call flys, 1.5 net

* 3,650 Jun 76 straddles, 9.5

* 5,000 short Jun 76 calls, 1.0 vs. 97.23/0.10%

* 2,000 Jun 78/80 1x2 call spds, 0.0

* 4,000 Jun 77/80 1x2 call spds 0.5 over short Jun 76 calls vs. 97.645/0.10%

* 3,000 Sep 72/73 put spds, 2.0 vs. 97.515/0.10%

Tsy options, Pit/screen:

* 1,000 USM 145/146 strangles, 1-58/64

* over -12,000 USU 143 puts on screen, open interest 24k coming into session

Block, 0727:20ET -- Not seeing this show up on Bloomberg, viewable on CME site

* 14,170 FVQ 115.75 calls, 4.5/64

* +30,000 TYM 121.5 calls, 10/64 (open interest just over 84k coming into the

session)

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]