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US TSYS: Modest Paring Of Yesterday’s Losses Ahead Of Heavy Docket

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Treasuries have kept to relatively narrow ranges overnight but sit mildly firmer to chip away at yesterday’s losses that had been seen on a combination of corporate supply and positioning ahead of today’s heavy docket.
  • Gains have been supported by large declines in WTI futures on prospects of higher Saudi supply although they are off lows as the likelihood of an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire is assessed.
  • Cash yields are 1.4-2bp lower, with declines led by 20s.
  • 2s10s at 22.5bps (-0.3bps) remains close to yesterday’s fresh ytd high of 24.1bps.  
  • TYZ4 trades at 114-20+ (+ 02+) on subdued volumes of 250k. It has lifted away from support at 114-09+ (Sep 24 low) whilst resistance is seen at 115-02+ (Sep 19 high) before a bull trigger at 115-23+ (Sep 11 high).
  • Today sees important data including comprehensive GDP/GDI revisions, followed by heavy Fedspeak before 7y supply. The auction comes after 2s and 5s were on the screws this week but with mildly softer details than August.
  • Data: GDP third Q2 release + annual revisions (0830ET), Weekly jobless claims (0830ET), Durable goods Aug prelim (0830ET), Pending home sales Aug (1000ET), KC Fed mfg Sep (1100ET)
  • Fedspeak: Collins & Kugler (0910ET), Bowman (0915ET), Powell opening remarks (0920ET), Williams (0925ET), Williams (0925ET), Barr (1030ET), Cook (1030ET), Kashkari & Barr (1300ET), Cook (1800ET) – see STIR bullet.
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $44B 7Y Note auction - 91282CLM1 (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $90B 4W, $85B 8W bill auctions (1130ET)
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  • Treasuries have kept to relatively narrow ranges overnight but sit mildly firmer to chip away at yesterday’s losses that had been seen on a combination of corporate supply and positioning ahead of today’s heavy docket.
  • Gains have been supported by large declines in WTI futures on prospects of higher Saudi supply although they are off lows as the likelihood of an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire is assessed.
  • Cash yields are 1.4-2bp lower, with declines led by 20s.
  • 2s10s at 22.5bps (-0.3bps) remains close to yesterday’s fresh ytd high of 24.1bps.  
  • TYZ4 trades at 114-20+ (+ 02+) on subdued volumes of 250k. It has lifted away from support at 114-09+ (Sep 24 low) whilst resistance is seen at 115-02+ (Sep 19 high) before a bull trigger at 115-23+ (Sep 11 high).
  • Today sees important data including comprehensive GDP/GDI revisions, followed by heavy Fedspeak before 7y supply. The auction comes after 2s and 5s were on the screws this week but with mildly softer details than August.
  • Data: GDP third Q2 release + annual revisions (0830ET), Weekly jobless claims (0830ET), Durable goods Aug prelim (0830ET), Pending home sales Aug (1000ET), KC Fed mfg Sep (1100ET)
  • Fedspeak: Collins & Kugler (0910ET), Bowman (0915ET), Powell opening remarks (0920ET), Williams (0925ET), Williams (0925ET), Barr (1030ET), Cook (1030ET), Kashkari & Barr (1300ET), Cook (1800ET) – see STIR bullet.
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $44B 7Y Note auction - 91282CLM1 (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $90B 4W, $85B 8W bill auctions (1130ET)