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US TSYS: Modestly Firmer Ahead Of A Thin Docket

US TSYS
  • Treasuries are off highs but hold onto modest rallies ahead of a thin docket, underperforming rallies in EGBs. 
  • The thin docket could see some attention on headlines from the Democratic National Convention but greater focus is likely on Wednesday’s preliminary payrolls benchmark revision and FOMC Minutes before Powell’s Jackson Hole appearance on Friday. 
  • Goldman Sachs on recent data: “After the July jobs report released on August 2 triggered the “Sahm rule,” we raised our 12-month US recession probability from 15% to 25%. Now, we have moved it back down to 20% because the data released since August 2—including retail sales and jobless claims this week—shows no sign of recession.”
  • Cash yields are 0.3bp higher (3s) to 1.5bp lower (30s), with declines led by the long end for a modest bull flattening. 
  • 2s10s at -17.6bps (-1bp) keeps to Thursday’s post-jobless claims further pull back from recent steeps. 
  • TYU4 at 113-06+ (+ 03) is at the high end of today’s initial levels but remains within Friday’s range, amidst low volumes nearing 250k. 
  • The trend structure is deemed bullish, but volatility of recent weeks leaves some way to go before resistance at 114-03 (Aug 6 high) before a bull trigger at 115-03+ (Aug 5 high). 
  • Data: Conference Board leading index (1000ET)
  • Fedspeak: Waller gives opening remarks (0915ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $76B 13W bill, $70B 26W bill auctions (1130ET)
  • Politics: Democratic National Convention Aug 19-22 in Chicago, Illinois 
USBulletGlobalFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
USBulletGlobalFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America

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