US TSYS: TENTATIVE RISK-ON, 10YY TAPS 50-DMA

US TSY SUMMARY: Another relatively quiet inside range day w/ Tsys drifting near

low end of range on moderate volume (TYM<1.17k). Early risk on as Tsys tracked

Bund and China note yields. Equities firmer but off first half highs (SPX +3.75

at 2913.25).

- Two-way positioning ahead large data drop on Thu's shortened session, better

sellers partially deal-tied on unexpected corp supply near $13B on day,

carry-over front end steepeners, mixed conditional curve plays in Eurodollar

options, better call buyers on net.

- On tap for Wednesday: February trade balance, wholesale inventories and sales;

Fed Beige Book for upcoming FOMC. Fed Blackout kicks off April 20 through May 2.

- The 2-Yr yield is up 1.9bps at 2.4103%, 5-Yr is up 3.2bps at 2.4042%, 10-Yr is

up 3.6bps at 2.5904%, and 30-Yr is up 2.5bps at 2.9927%.

US TSY FUTURES CLOSE: Near late session lows on modest volume (TYM<1.17M), short

end yld curves mostly steeper, 10YY near 50DMA at 2.592%. Curve update:

* 3M10Y  +2.666, 17.207 (L: 12.504 / H: 17.387)

* 2Y10Y  +1.5, 17.57 (L: 15.555 / H: 18.369)

* 2Y30Y  +0.407, 57.86 (L: 57.089 / H: 58.765)

* 5Y30Y  -1.044, 58.416 (L: 58.267 / H: 60.271)

Current futures levels:

* Jun Ultra futures (WN) down 32/32  at 162-24 (L: 162-21 / H: 163-23)

* Jun 30-Yr futures (US) down 25/32  at 146-9 (L: 146-08 / H: 147-04)

* Jun 10-Yr futures (TY) down 11/32  at 122-26 (L: 122-25.5 / H: 123-06.5)

* Jun 5-Yr futures (FV) down 5.75/32  at 115-0.5 (L: 115-00.25 / H: 115-07.5)

* Jun 2-Yr futures (TU) down 1.5/32  at 106-7.375 (L: 106-07.25 / H: 106-09.375)

US EURODLR FUTURES CLOSE: Weaker across the strip, just off low end of range,

long end underperforming. Current White pack (Jun'19-Mar'20):

* Jun 19 -0.010 at 97.410

* Sep 19 -0.005 at 97.450

* Dec 19 -0.015 at 97.440

* Mar 20 -0.025 at 97.530

* Red Pack (Jun 20-Mar 21) -0.04 to -0.03

* Green Pack (Jun 21-Mar 22) -0.045 to -0.04

* Blue Pack (Jun 22-Mar 23) -0.045 to -0.045

* Gold Pack (Jun 23-Mar 24) -0.05 to -0.045

US DOLLAR LIBOR: Latest settles

* O/N -0.0035 at 2.3891% (-0.0031/wk)

* 1 Month +0.0059 to 2.4797% (+0.0024/wk)

* 3 Month +0.0128 to 2.6008% (-0.0002/wk)

* 6 Month -0.0063 to 2.6313% (-0.0064/wk)

* 1 Year +0.0004 at 2.7552% (+0.0069/wk)

US TSYS: REPO REFERENCE RATES: (rate, volume) 

* Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 2.47%, $968B

* Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 2.43%, $462B

* Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 2.43%, $433B

US SWAPS: Spds ground tighter late amid an unexpectedly decent amount of

corporate issuance on the session ($12.75B). Otherwise rather quiet session for

swaps. Latest spd levels:

Time (ET)   2Y Swap/Mid   5Y Swap/Mid   10Y Swap/Mid   30Y Swap/Mid

Tue 3:00    -0.56/9.50    -0.19/3.44     -0.25/-1.12   +0.12/-23.69

12:30       +0.12/10.19   +0.00/3.62     -0.06/-0.94   +0.31/-23.50

11:15       +0.19/10.25   +0.00/3.62     -0.06/-0.94   +0.31/-23.50

9:00        +0.06/10.12   -0.12/3.50     -0.25/-1.12   -0.12/-23.94

Tue Open    +0.19/10.25   +0.06/3.69     +0.00/-0.88   +0.00/-23.81

Mon 3:00    -0.19/9.86    +0.50/3.50     +0.62/-1.00   +1.25/-23.75

Spds still mostly wider, long end extending move into midday. Light flow on net,

receivers in 2s at 2.501%, 5s at 2.4056% and 10s at 2.5445%; payer in 3s at

2.4406%. Earlier, mild receivers in 2s and 3s after the open, rate paying in 5s

at 2.4310%.

OUTLOOK: *** Data/speaker calendar (prior, estimate):

17-Apr 0700 12-Apr MBA Mortgage Apps' (-5.6%, --) 

17-Apr 0830 Feb trade balance (-$51.1b, -$53.5B) 

17-Apr 1000 Feb wholesale inventories (1.2%, 0.2%) 

17-Apr 1000 Feb wholesale sales (0.5%, --) 

17-Apr 1030 12-Apr crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w (7.03m bbl, --) 

17-Apr 1230 StL Fed Pres Bullard, economy/mon-pol conf, NY, Q&A 

17-Apr 1230 Phil Fed Pres Harker, economic outlook, NJ, Q&A 

17-Apr 1400 Fed Beige Book for upcoming FOMC, DC 

17-Apr 1900 NY Fed Sn VP Logan, Money Marketeers, NY, Q&A

PIPELINE: KFW priced, PNC launched

Date $MM Issuer/Rating/Desc/Maturity/Yld/Leads; Priced *; Launch #:

04/16 $2.75B #Citigroup 6NC5 +95

04/16 $1.5B #PNC Financial 10Y +88

04/16 $1.5B #JP Morgan 30Y +115

04/16 $4B #Walmart $1.5B 5Y +47, $1.25B 7Y +57, $1.25B 10Y +65

04/16 $3B *KFW 2Y flat

04/16 $Benchmark Province of Ontario 3Y +16a

04/? $Benchmark Tokyo Metropolitan Gov 3-7Y US$ or Euro issue chatter

04/? $Benchmark Waste Management

Eurodollar/Tsy options:

Eurodollar options, Pit/screen:

* +11,000 short Dec 78/82 call spds 1.5 over Blue Dec 78/82 call spds

* +5,600 short May 78 calls, 1.5 vs. 97.625/0.10%

* +5,000 Sep 73/75 5x2 put spds, 8.0

* +5,000 Sep 75/76 1x2 call spds, 3.0 vs. 97.445

* -5,000 Jun 75 puts, 3.5 vs. 97.655/0.05

* +10,000 Dec 80/83 1x3 call spds, 0.5

* -6,000 Mar 70/71/72/73 put condors, 2.75/legged

pick-up in screen and pit volume

* +45,000 Jul 75 calls, 2.75 vs. 97.455/0.25%

* +15,000 Jul 76 calls traded 1.5 earlier

* 3,000 Mar 70/71/73 broken put flys, 5.0

* 3,000 Mar 70/72/73 put flys, 0.5

* over 10,000 Red Jun20 73/75/76 put flys trade on screen

* Update, >+18,000 (10k just Blocked) Mar/Red Sep 70/72 put spd spds, 1.5

net/flattener adds to +13k Mon

* +5,000 short May 75/77 call over risk reversals, 1.0 vs. 97.445/0.28%

Block, 1001:02ET,

* +10,000 Green Sep 71/73/76 put flys, 7.0 vs. 97.65/0.10%

* 6,000 Mar 78/80 call spds vs. Red Jun 82/85 call spds, 1.0 net db/Red Jun over

* +5,000 Mar/Red Sep 70/72 put spd spds, 1.5 net/flattener adds to +13k Mon

* -2,000 Blue Jun 75/78 call over risk reversals, .5 vs. 97.67

* 2,000 Green Sep 75/77 put spds, 12.0

* over +40,000 Dec 75/76 call spds 1.0 over the Dec 71/72 put spds vs.

97.445/0.28%

* +15,000 Dec 75/76 call spds 1.0 over the Dec 71/72 put spds vs. 97.445/0.28%

* 4,000 Green Jun 78/81 call spds, 3.0 vs. 97.705

* 15,500 Jul 75 calls, 2.75 vs. 97.455/0.25%

* 12,500 Green Dec 68 puts, 1.5 vs. 97.64/0.05%

* 3,500 Sep 73/75 put spds, 7.5 vs. 97.45/0.32%

* 3,000 Sep 76/77 call spds, 1.0 vs. 97.42/0.10%

*1,250 Green Dec 73/83 2x3 call spds

Tsy options, Pit/screen:

Block, 1214:30ET,

* 10,000 wk3 TY 123 straddles, 20/64 vs. 122-27.5

* >8,000 TYK 122.5 puts on screen, 6/64

* 2,000 TYM 122 puts, 12/64 vs. 122-30.5

* 1,000 FVK 115/115.25 2x1 put spds, 1/64

* 2,000 TYM 122 puts, 12/64 vs. 122-30.5

* 1,000 FVK 115/115.25 2x1 put spds, 1/64

* -1,000 TYK 122.5/123.25 2x1 put spds, 16/64

* +1,000 TYM 123 straddles, 1-3/64

* 1,300 TYK 123 straddles, 34/64 earlier

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]