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US TSYS: Treasuries Rally With Oil and Equities Stepping Lower

US TSYS
  • Treasuries have rallied over the past couple hours, with similar moves in EGBs as fixed income receives a tailwind from oil prices stepping lower and equity futures rolling over. 
  • Recent flow includes a 5k TY cumulative buyer, 3k in FVU4 and 1.75k in UXYU4. 
  • Most recently, former NY Fed’s Dudley writes that he thinks Powell will disappoint those looking for September cut size clarity whilst Goolsbee’s NPR appearance has started early with dovish commentary. 
  • The WSJ late yesterday reported Harris campaign officials saying she will call for the construction of 3 million new housing units in her first four years in office along with tax incentives for home builders to construct properties for first-time home buyers. 
  • Cash yields sit 3-4.7bps lower on the day, with declines led by 3s. 
  • 2s10s at -17.1bps meanwhile holds the bulk of yesterday's flattening on retail sales/jobless claims beats. 
  • TYU4 sees session highs of 113-09+ (+ 11) on solid volumes of 350k. It pulls away from yesterday’s low of 112-25+ but remains some way off pre-retail sales/jobless claims levels of circa 113-19. 
  • Recent moves haven’t tested some widely spaced levels after last week’s volatility: support is seen at 112-11 (20-day EMA) whilst resistance is still seen at 114-03 (Aug 6 high) before a bull trigger at 115-03+ (Aug 5 high). 
  • Data: Building permits/housing starts (0830ET), NY Fed services index Aug (0830ET), U.Mich Aug prelim (1000ET), State labor data (1000ET)
  • Fedspeak: Goolsbee at NPR’s Morning Edition (~0700ET), fireside chat (1325ET) and CNN appearance (1615ET) – see STIR bullet as he’s already spoken since Wednesday’s CPI release. 
USBulletGlobalFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
USBulletGlobalFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America

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