US TSYS: TSY WEAKER AHEAD FRI'S MAR JOB DATA, FED CHAIR POWELL

US TSY SUMMARY: Tsys tap/extend late overnight lows by the bell as stocks climb

(emini +23.5, 2670.5), also seeing pressure from FX-accts (US$/Yen>107.45).

Tariff concerns? What concerns? Oh, by the way, China/Hong Kong mkts closed for

holiday Fri. US$ index firmer (DXY +.331, 90.473); gold weaker (XAU -7.75,

1325.57); West Texas crudes little firmer (WTI +0.28, 63.65). Relative quiet

ahead Fri's headline Mar NFP (+190k est) AHE (+.3% est).

- Tsys opened w/a mild risk-on tone w/carry-over bid for equities after late

Wed's bounce (on eco-adv Kudlow off-cuff comments that China tariffs tariffs

w/China may not go into effect). Little/no react to weekly claims (+24k to 242k)

while Feb trade deficit widened to -$57.6b vs -$56.7b exp.

- Two-way flow w/better fast- and real$ sellers in intermediates later in

session, deal-tied flow in the mix on decent pick-up in corp issuance on day

($9.3B). Light curve flattener unwinds in 2s vs. 5s and 10s. Decent option flow

hedging short term downside risk in event of better than expected NFP in

conjunction w/strong AHE. 

- Late ylds: 2Y 2.303%, 3Y 2.444%, 5Y 2.638%, 7Y 2.764%, 10Y 2.828%, 30Y 3.074%

US TSY FUTURES CLOSE: Lower across the curve, fading back to low end of range in

late trade as equities climb higher (emibni +24.25, 2671.25; INDU +305.5). Curve

update:

* 2s10s +1.344, 52.170 (52.576H/49.611L);

* 2s30s +2.411, 76.555 (76.798H/72.766L);

* 5s30s +1.849, 43.332 (43.758H/41.041L);

Current futures levels:

* Jun Ultra bonds down 1-8/32 at 157-22 (157-20L/158-23H)

* Jun 30-yr Bond futures down 28/32 at 144-27 (144-26L/145-16H)

* Jun 10-yr futures down 8.5/32 at 120-18 (120-16.5L/120-23.5H)

* Jun 5-yr futures down 4.75/32 at 114-04.75 (114-04L/114-07.5H)

* Jun 2-yr futures down 1/32 at 106-08 (106-07.5L/106-08.5H)

US EURODOLLAR FUTURES CLOSE: Weaker across the strip by the bell, just off late

morning lows. Current White pack (Jun'18-Mar'19):

* Jun'18 -0.010 at 97.675

* Sep'18 -0.015 at 97.585

* Dec'18 -0.020 at 97.470

* Jun'19 -0.030 at 97.370

* Red pack (Jun'19-Mar'20) -0.030-0.040

* Green pack (Jun'20-Mar'21) -0.040-0.035

* Blue pack (Jun'21-Mar'21) -0.040

* Gold pack (Jun'22-Mar'22) -0.040-0.045

US DOLLAR LIBOR: Latest settles, 

* O/N +0.0012 to 1.7031% (+0.0062/wk) 

* 1 Month +0.0046 to 1.8952% (+0.0121/wk)

* 3 Month +0.0060 to 2.3306% (+0.0188/wk)

* 6 Month +0.0062 to 2.4662% (+0.0138/wk)

* 1 Year +0.0194 to 2.7003% (+0.0367/wk)

REPO REFERENCE RATES: (rate, volume)

* Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 1.74% vs. 1.83% prior, $859B

* Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 1.70% vs. 1.81% prior, $348B

* Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 1.70% vs. 1.81% prior, $327B

US SWAPS: Spds running mostly wider by the bell, short end off early wides as

supply hedges unwound. Earlier mixed flow includes

* $250mln receiver of USD 1Y at 2.4499%

* $240mln+ receiver of USD 4Y at 2.7475%

* $400mln+ receiver of USD 5Y at 2.7729%-2.7735%

* $170mln+ receiver of USD 10Y at 2.8505%

* $111.6k DV01 5Y-7Y STEEPENER

* $147.5k DV01 2Y-10Y FLATTENER

PIPELINE: Waiting for GM and BMW multi-tranche issuance to price

Date $MM Issuer/Rating/Desc/Maturity/Yld/Leads; Priced *; Launch #:

04/05 $2.5B #GM Financial, $500M 3Y FRN +85, $1B 3Y fix +112, $1B 7Y +160

04/05 $3.5B #BMW US Capital, $1.75B 3y Fxd/FRN, $1B 5y Fxd, $750M 10y

04/05 $2.5B *Salesforce, $1B 5Y +62.5, $1.5B 10Y +87.5

04/05 $350M *NWB Mining FRN 2019 Tap 3mL +1

04/05 $500M *BNG Mining 4Y FRN 3ML +7a

OUTLOOK: - Apr 06 Mar nonfarm payrolls (313k, 190k) 0830ET 

- Apr 06 Mar private payrolls (287k, 200k) 0830ET 

- Apr 06 Mar unemployment rate (4.1%, 4.0%) 0830ET 

- Apr 06 Mar average hourly earnings (0.1%, 0.3%) 0830ET 

- Apr 06 Mar average workweek, all workers (34.5hrs, 34.5hrs) 0830ET 

- Apr 06 Q2 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast 1100ET 

- Apr 06 Q2 NY Fed GDP Nowcast 1115ET 

- Apr 06 Fed Chairman Powell economic outlook, Chicago, 1330ET 

- Apr 06 Feb consumer credit ($13.9B, $18.0B) 1500ET

Eurodollar/Treasury Option Summary

Eurodollar options, Pit/screen:

Block, 1357:00, midmarket

* 10,000 Green Dec 68 puts, 15.0

* +13,000 Green Jun 77 calls, 1.0 on screen last couple minutes -- ongoing

* -15,000 May 76/77 call over risk reversals, 0.0, unhedged. 

* 15,750 short May 75/Blue May 73 call spds, 0.0

* Update, total +15,750 short Dec/Green Dec 73 call spds, conditional Red/Green

curve steepener for 0.0

* +15,000 Dec 68/72/73 broken put trees 1.5 over the Dec 78 calls vs.

97.465/0.30%

* +10,000 short Dec/Green Dec 73 call spds, conditional Red/Green curve

steepener

* -2,500 Green Apr 71 straddles, 9.5

Block, 0943:26-0943ET, bought earlier in wk,

calls appear to be short cover of leg sold to fund buy of appr 100 front Jun

80/82 1x2 call spds (cab net) around mid-Feb

* total +20,000 short Jun 80 calls, 0.5 vs. 97.29-.295/0.05%

* +3,000 Dec 72/73 3x2 put spds, 4.0

* -4,750 May 76 straddles, 10.0

* 20,000 Dec 75 calls, 12.5 vs. 97.48/0.46%

* 5,000 short Jul 67/68/71 broken put flys, 3.5 over the short Jul 77 calls

* 2,500 short Apr 71/72 put spds, 2.0

* -5,000 Apr 76/Jul 73 put strip, 1.5 total cr

* -2,750 short Jun 73/75 1x2 call spds, 0.5

* 1,200 short Jun 70/73 strangles, 8.5

* +3,000 Dec 75 straddles vs. -2,000 short Dec 72 straddles, 7.0 net cr

Tsy options, Pit/screen

* 1,000 TYK 117/118/119 2x3x1 put flys, 2/64 net, wings over

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]