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US TSYS: Tsys Futures Edge Highs On Haven Demand

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Tsys futures closed the Tuesday session higher, amid waves of risk-on/safe haven support in the first half. Treasuries initially rallied with EGBs after Israel kicked off a ground assault in southern Lebanon. Levels extended the rally back to September 20 levels as wires reported Iran had launched dozens of ballistic missiles at Israel. However we finished off session highs as tensions look to cool later in the session, with IDF officials reporting "no additional threats" after Iran missile attack largely intercepted in transit to Israel and Israelis allowed to exit shelters, while Iran's foreign minister stated on X that his country’s action is concluded unless Israel “decides to invite further retaliation.”
  • Geopolitical risks overshadowed the day's ISM Mfg miss and higher than expected job openings in JOLTS data.
  • TU closed +01⅞ at 104-05¾, while TY closed +13 at 114-22
  • Cash tsys curves bull-flattened overnight, with yields trading 3-5bps lower. The 2yr closed -3.7bps at 3.604%, while the 10yr closed -4.9bps at 3.732%. The 2s10s closed 1.466 at 12.312.
  • Projected rate cut pricing into year end gaining some momentum vs. this morning's levels (*): Nov'24 cumulative -34.9bp (-35.4bp), Dec'24 -70.8bp (-68.9bp), Jan'25 -102.3bp (-102.1bp).
  • Focus will turn to MBA Mortgage Applications  & ADP Employment Change later toda
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  • Tsys futures closed the Tuesday session higher, amid waves of risk-on/safe haven support in the first half. Treasuries initially rallied with EGBs after Israel kicked off a ground assault in southern Lebanon. Levels extended the rally back to September 20 levels as wires reported Iran had launched dozens of ballistic missiles at Israel. However we finished off session highs as tensions look to cool later in the session, with IDF officials reporting "no additional threats" after Iran missile attack largely intercepted in transit to Israel and Israelis allowed to exit shelters, while Iran's foreign minister stated on X that his country’s action is concluded unless Israel “decides to invite further retaliation.”
  • Geopolitical risks overshadowed the day's ISM Mfg miss and higher than expected job openings in JOLTS data.
  • TU closed +01⅞ at 104-05¾, while TY closed +13 at 114-22
  • Cash tsys curves bull-flattened overnight, with yields trading 3-5bps lower. The 2yr closed -3.7bps at 3.604%, while the 10yr closed -4.9bps at 3.732%. The 2s10s closed 1.466 at 12.312.
  • Projected rate cut pricing into year end gaining some momentum vs. this morning's levels (*): Nov'24 cumulative -34.9bp (-35.4bp), Dec'24 -70.8bp (-68.9bp), Jan'25 -102.3bp (-102.1bp).
  • Focus will turn to MBA Mortgage Applications  & ADP Employment Change later toda