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US TSYS: Tsys Futures Slightly Lower Ahead Of US PPI Later

US TSYS
  • Tsys futures edged slightly lower in the first half of the session, before trading in very tight ranges as we head into the European session. front-end is slightly underperforming, mirroring moves made post US CPI overnight. Focus will now turn to ECB where they are expected to lower rates by 25bps, then onto US PPI which should give a clearer pictures on whether a 25bps or 50bps cut is on the cards for next week.
  • TUZ4 is -0-01 at 104-09⅛ while TYZ4 is trading -0-01+ at 115-09.
  • Tsys flows: TU/UXY Block Flattener DV01 350k, UXY Block Likely Buyer DV01 450k
  • Cash tsys curve continues the bear-flattening moves from overnight, with the 2yr +1.2bps at 3.654%, while the 10yr is +0.9bps at 3.668%.
  • Projected rate cuts through year end remain soft vs. pre-data levels (*): Sep'24 cumulative -28.5bp (-32.7bp), Nov'24 cumulative -65.1bp (-72.5bp), Dec'24 -105.3bp (-114.5bp).
  • It has been a reasonably quiet session in Asia today, with focus on BOJ's Tamura indicated that the CB needs to raise its benchmark rate more aggressively than many economists have been expecting, noting that the neutral policy rate in Japan is 1% or higher, we briefly saw the yen strengthen, while yields rose slightly, however we now trade little changed.
  • Following decent demand in the 10yr auction overnight, there is a $22b 30yr bond auction later today
  • Looking ahead we have US PPI  and Jobless Claims a bit later.
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America

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