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Free AccessMNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: Dec 2024
MNI US Employment Insight: Soft Enough To Keep Fed Cutting
MNI ASIA MARKETS ANALYSIS: Jobs Data Green Lights Rate Cuts
US TSYS: TSYS REVERSE EARLY GAINS, UK MAY BREXIT RECORD DEFEAT
US TSY SUMMARY: Rates reversed early gains, traded lower, curves bear steepened.
Little react to UK PM May record Brexit vote defeat (230 vote defeat). US$ Index
surged on Draghi comments earlier, but pared gains as well as GBP rebounded post
GBP vote. Tsy cash/ylds: 2Y 99-30 (2.531%), 5Y 100-14.25 (2.527%), 10Y 103-17
(2.711%), 30Y 105-27.5 (3.073%).
US TSY FUTURES CLOSE: Whites firmer, mildly weaker out the strip; moderate
volume. Current White
pack(Mar'19-Dec'19):
* Mar'19 +0.010 at 97.315
* Jun'19 +0.010 at 97.295
* Sep'19 +0.010 at 97.310
* Dec'19 +0.010 at 97.310
* Red pack (Mar'19-Dec'20) -0.010-0.005
* Green pack (Mar'20-Dec'21) -0.010-0.005
* Blue pack (Mar'21-Dec'21) -0.005
* Gold pack (Mar'22-Dec'22) -0.005-EVEN
US SWAPS: Spds still mixed after the bell, spd curve flatter vs. renewed
steepening in Tsy yld curves. Early NY flow two-way in 2s, 3s and 5s but tending
toward better rate and spd paying, decent volume in 2s5s10s receiver fly. Expect
5s-10s to narrow later in day as corp supply tied hedging unwound. Latest spd
levels:
Time (ET) 2Y Swap/Mid 5Y Swap/Mid 10Y Swap/Mid 30Y Swap/Mid
Tue 3:00 +1.12/16.81 +0.06/9.12 +0.38/2.88 -0.69/-20.94
9:30 +0.81/16.50 +0.00/9.06 +0.00/2.50 -0.94/-21.25
Tue Open +0.62/16.31 -0.19/8.88 -0.06/2.38 +0.25/-20.06
Mon 2:55 +0.81/16.19 +0.50/9.06 +0.25/2.50 -0.50/-19.62
US DOLLAR LIBOR: Latest settles,
* O/N -0.0034 to 2.3867% (-0.0026/wk)
* 1 Month -0.0025 to 2.5075% (-0.0014/wk)
* 3 Month -0.0055 to 2.7734% (-0.0139/wk)
* 6 Month -0.0076 to 2.8458% (-0.0188/wk)
* 1 Year -0.0024 to 3.0084% (-0.0103/wk)
US TSYS: *** /REPO REFERENCE RATES: (rate, volume)
* Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 2.40% vs. 2.41% prior, $977B
* Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 2.38% vs. 2.38% prior, $447B
* Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 2.38% vs. 2.38% prior, $433B
US SWAPS: Spds still mixed after the bell, spd curve flatter vs. renewed
steepening in Tsy yld curves. Early NY flow two-way in 2s, 3s and 5s but tending
toward better rate and spd paying, decent volume in 2s5s10s receiver fly. Expect
5s-10s to narrow later in day as corp supply tied hedging unwound. Latest spd
levels:
Time (ET) 2Y Swap/Mid 5Y Swap/Mid 10Y Swap/Mid 30Y Swap/Mid
Tue 3:00 +1.12/16.81 +0.06/9.12 +0.38/2.88 -0.69/-20.94
9:30 +0.81/16.50 +0.00/9.06 +0.00/2.50 -0.94/-21.25
Tue Open +0.62/16.31 -0.19/8.88 -0.06/2.38 +0.25/-20.06
Mon 2:55 +0.81/16.19 +0.50/9.06 +0.25/2.50 -0.50/-19.62
PIPELINE: LAUNCHED $6.8b #Fox Corporation in 5-parts
Date $MM Issuer/Rating/Desc/Maturity/Yld/Leads; Priced *; Launch #:
1/15 $6.8b #Fox Corporation $750 3Y +115, $1.25b 5Y +150, $2b 10Y +200,
$1.25b 20Y +240, $1.55b 30Y +250
1/15 $5b *KFW 5Y MS +9
1/15 $2.25b *Citibank 5Y +117
1/15 $1.75b *Province of Alberta 5Y MS +37
1/15 $1.5b *Kommuninvest Long 3Y MS +12
OUTLOOK: *** Data/speaker calendar (prior, estimate):
16-Jan 0700 11-Jan MBA Mortgage Applications (23.5%, --)
16-Jan 0830 Dec imports price index (-1.6%, -1.3%)
16-Jan 0830 Dec exports price index (-0.9%, --)
16-Jan 0830 Jan NY Fed Business Leaders Index (5.6, --)
16-Jan 1000 Jan NAHB home builder index (56, --)
16-Jan 1000 Jan Atlanta Fed inflation (2.3%, --)
16-Jan 1030 11-Jan crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w (-1680m bbl, --)
16-Jan 1830 Mn Fed Pres Kashkari, Intel Squared "10 Yrs After Global Fincl
Crisis, System/Safer," NY
Eurodollar/Treasury Option Summary
* +15,000 May 68/77 Strangle at 0.75
* -15,000 Dec 72/73 Strangle at 30.5
* 3,000 Green Apr 75 Straddle at 29
* -4,000 Apr 72 puts at 3.25
block, 08:39:09ET,
* 10,000 Short Jun 73/75 put strip vs 20,000 Green Jun 75 puts at net EVEN
* 5,000 Jun 70/71 1x2 put sprd at 1 vs 9728.5/0.10%
* 4,000 Short Feb/Short Apr 72 put calendar at 3.5
Screen trade
* +3,000 Jun 68/70/71 put flys, 1.25
Tsy options, Pit/screen:
block, 12:29:29ET, out about 40 minutes ago
* +11,200 TYH9 121 puts at 15, adds to +2k on screen
Recapping this morning large 5- and10Y option trades
* +42,000 FVH9 112.75 puts at 1, >100k still offered (note open interest only
25k)
* over -60,000 FVG 114.5/115.5 call spds most at 13/64 (13.5-11 range)
* -46,000 FVG 114/115 call spds 31.5 to 31/64
* -65,000 TYG 122/123 call spds, mostly 15/64
* over -28,000 TYG 121.5/123.5 call spds, 30- 31/64
* -25,000 TYG 122/123.5 call spds, 19/64
* +2,500 FVH 115 calls, 5/64
* appr -1,750 TYH 122 straddles, 1-11/64 last
* 3,000 TYG 122.5/TYH 123 call strip, 30/64
* 1,000 TYK 120/124 call over risk reversals, 16/64 vs. 122-14.5/0.40%
* 1,000 wk3 TY 122.5/123 call spd, 5/64
* +3,000 TYG 122 puts 17/64 over the wk3 TY 121.5 puts vs. 122-01/0.33%
* 1,000 USH 144 puts, 39/64
--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.