US Weekly Oil Summary: Crude Production to hit 13.65m b/d in 2025

US crude oil production is seen at 13.19m b/ in 2024 and 13.65m b/d in 2025, according to the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook. This is an upward revision of 0.09m b/d and 0.16m b/d respectively compared to the February report.

• EIA Weekly US Petroleum Summary - w/w change week ending Mar 08: Crude stocks -1,536 vs Exp +307, Crude production -100, Gasoline stocks -5,662 vs Exp -1,620:, Distillate stocks +888 vs Exp -704,
• US gasoline pump prices are likely to see a sharp upswing in the coming weeks as major refinery outages have cut supplies, according to Reuters.
• The replenishment of the US’ strategic petroleum reserve may be hampered by rising crude prices, according to Reuters.
• Greenback strength this week has been a function of higher yields in the US, with the roughly 20bp shift higher in the US 10-yr resulting in a 0.72% advance for the USD index. With both BOJ and Fed decisions next week, USDJPY has rallied 1.35% as we approach the week’s close.
• US DATA: CPI Unrounded - Feb'24. Unrounded % M/M (SA): Headline 0.442%; Core: 0.358% (from 0.392%). Unrounded % Y/Y (NSA): Headline 3.153%; Core: 3.752% (from 3.862%)
• The below four non-rounded preliminary core PCE estimates average 0.25% M/M in Feb with some slight upside from rounded estimates, after 0.42% in Jan.
• PPI final demand: 0.56% M/M (cons 0.3) in Feb after an upward revised 0.43 (initial 0.33).