US Weekly Oil Summary: US Crude Supply Forecast Above 13m b/d in 2024

US crude oil supply is expected to rise to 13.15m b/d in 2024, compared to 12.90m b/d in 2023, according to the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook.

• WTI spot average price for Q4 is forecast to be $85.93/b, according to the EIA. It forecasts the 2024 average for WTI to be $89.24/b, up 12.4% on the expected 2023 average.
• US crude and condensate exports rose to 4.16mbpd in September, up from 4.14mbpd in August, US Census Bureau data showed.
• Refiners in the Great Lakes running heavy sour crudes are capitalising on delays in the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion and thus falling Canadian crude prices, according to OPIS.
• Two key buyers of Canadian heavy crude are set to boost their imports of Venezuelan crudes, possible replacing Canadian crude demand, ArgusMedia said.
• US total oil and gas rig counts fell by two on the week to 616 rigs, according to Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count data, the lowest weekly level since Feb. 4 2022.
• The US DOE is looking to buy 3mbbl of sour crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for delivery in January into the Big Hill SPR site.
• USD: The greenback slowly unwound the post-NFP weakness this week with the USD index looking set to close around 0.75% higher on the week.
• Fed Gov. Bowman (voter) maintained her hawkish stance in prepared remarks at the 2023 Ohio Bankers League. Bowman supported the FOIVICs decision last week to hold rates unchanged but continues to expect that the Fed will need to hike further "to bring inflation down to our 2 percent target in a timely way?
• US jobless Initial claims were close to expectations with a seasonally adjusted 217k (cons 218k) in the week to Nov 4 after another slightly upward revised 220k (initial 217k).
• The four-week average increased 1k to 212k, still slowly increasing from the 206k in mid-October which marked the lowest since Feb. The 2019 average for initial claims was 218k.
• White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre has issued a statement confirming that President Biden will hold a bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on November 15 on the margins of the APEC summit in San Francisco - the first contact between the two leaders since last November's G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, and Xi's first visit to the US since 2017.