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USD/CAD Through Bear Trigger, Paving Way for Further Losses

CAD
  • The short-term outlook for USD/CAD has deteriorated markedly Thursday, with spot falling through the horizontal bear trigger drawn off the late June low of 1.3117. The 1.0% 10-dma envelope has also been pierced on the way lower, signaling the extent of the current downside momentum.
  • Oil-tied currencies already underpinned by the rise in Brent crude back above the $80/bbl level for the first time since early May, and have received a second tailwind from the spreading of protests across Libya, which have threatened production from the El Feel oil field - responsible for 60,000 bpd of production across the country.
  • Next downside levels in USD/CAD undercut at 1.3084 the 1.618 projection of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing ahead of 50% retracement for the 2021 - 2022 upleg at 1.2992.
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