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USD/CNH Back Sub 7.1300 On Early Yen Gains, CNY Basket Edges Lower

CNH

USD/CNH is slightly lower in early Thursday dealings, last under 7.1300, as yen gains in early trade amid weaker US equity futures (weighed post Nvidia earnings results). The pair finished Wednesday NY trade near 7.1330, a 0.16% loss in CNH terms. Broader USD sentiment was firmer, particularly in the DXY space (up over 0.50%), as the EUR faltered. For USD/CNY onshore spot we finished at 7.1279.

  • The CNY CFETS tracker lost a little ground down a further 0.1% to 97.51 (per BBG). The index is at fresh lows back to the start of the year.
  • Broader USD/CNH ranges remain intact, with intra session highs from Wednesday just above 7.1400. Earlier Wednesday lows were just under 7.1200. The USD/CNY fixing today may see the error term flip back to a negative bias in light of broader USD gains.
  • CNH implied rates remain low, the 1 week near 0.37%, the 1 month at 1.64%, which is up slightly from recent lows. Onshore liquidity is ample in light of recent liquidity injections.
  • The local data calendar is empty until Saturday's official PMI prints. On the forecast side, UBS downgraded its GDP projections for this year and next (this year's forecast was set at 4.6%, so below the official target around 5%).
  • On the geopolitical front, China President Xi and US President Biden are expected to hold a call in coming weeks (this follows talks between the China Foreign Minister and the US National Security Advisor in China over recent days).
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