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USD/CNH Dips Supported, Lower Equities & Onshore Yields Weighing

CNH

USD/CNH dips remain supported but we remain sub Wednesday session highs. The pair was last near 7.1660, against earlier lows were at 7.1558, which came after the CNY fixing print. Wednesday highs were just above 7.1725.

  • The better than expected Caixin PMI services print hasn't aided sentiment. Onshore stocks are off around 1% in terms of the CSI 300. We continue to see the late 2023 rally being unwound in the early stages of this year.
  • The index is back to 3340/45, with Dec 21 lows coming in sub 3300. The property sub index is off over 2%.
  • The tick down in onshore bond yields will be another headwind at the margin for CNH. The US-CH 10yr government bond spread is back to +138bps, against late 2023 lows near +120bps.
  • Speculation around easier policy settings remains a market focus point., particularly in light of the PSL increase at the end of last year.
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