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USD/CNH Rebounds, But Yuan Outperforms Broader USD Gains

CNH

USD/CNH rebounded in line with broader USD sentiment through Thursday trade. The rally stopped just short of 7.1500 and the pair tracks near 7.1450 in early Friday dealings. CNH lost 0.19% for Thursday's session, showing a lower beta with respect to broader USD index shifts (the DXY rose near 0.50%, the BBDXY up just over 0.40%). Spot USD/CNY also climbed to 7.1470.

  • Such a backdrop lent some stability to the CNY CFETS basket tracker per BBG. This index firmed 0.1% to 97.75, its first gain of this week.
  • For USD/CNH the 20-day EMA is back near 7.1775, beyond that lies recent highs between the 7.1850/7.1900 region. Lows this week rest at 7.1127.
  • There will be some focus on the USD/CNY fixing today, which should push higher, albeit with a continued focus on dampening out volatility.
  • US-CH yield differentials have stabilized in light of some resilient US data and cautious Fed speak from Thursday. US yield shifts will continue to drive swings in these spreads, with focus turning to tonight's Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Powell.
  • Locally, the data calendar is empty until Monday's 1yr MLF outcome. No changes are expected (currently at 2.3%).
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