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USD/CNH Rises, But Still Comfortably Sub Its 20-day EMA

CNH

USD/CNH rose back towards 7.1100 earlier, as onshore spot pushed above this level. We have since stabilized somewhat. Last Thursday the pair opened that session closer to 7.1300, so still have some distance to close this gap, likewise with the 20-day EMA, which continues to track lower last around 7.1475.

  • Yuan weakness is likely reflective of the softer equity market backdrop. Being clear of month end we are seeing fresh weakness in mainland aggregate indices. The CSI 300 is down over 1% and back under 3300 in index terms. We remain above late August intra-session lows though.
  • Renewed property concerns are a headwind (with sales down more sharply in August compared to July). The real estate sub index is off around 2.5%, although is only unwinding less than half of Friday's gain.
  • The Caixin manufacturing PMI was stronger than forecast at 50.4, but hasn't helped sentiment.
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