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USD/CNH Tested Early September Lows Sub 7.2400

CNH

USD/CNH briefly touched lows sub 7.2390 (low at 7.2388), before moving back above 7.2400. This is right around lows from early Sep (7.2392). A break sub this level could see mid August lows just under 7.2100 targeted. Spot USD/CNY is just under 7.2380 in recent dealings.

  • Equity sentiment is positive but we are off earlier highs, the CSI 300 last +0.67%. Northbound stock connect flows have been positive though at just under 5bn yuan in the first part of trade.
  • The market continues to digest the early spike in 1yr MLF liquidity and whether it means less rate/RRR cuts going forward. Onshore government bonds yields are relatively sticky today, 10yr last at 2.67%, 2yr at 2.35%.
  • US-CH yield differentials are back at +246bps for the 2yr spread, lows back to June, the 10yr spread is +175bps, levels last seen in late September.
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