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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CNH
The USD/CNY fixing came in above 6.9000, the first such occurrence in 2 years. It printed at 6.9096, versus a Bloomberg consensus of 6.9253.
- Today's fix continues the recent trend of stronger than expected outcomes, -157pips in USD/CNY terms today, although it doesn't show a more aggressive stance compared to last week.
- The rolling 5-day sum of the error term is now at -806pips, compared with -898pips yesterday. This is the first time since late August this metric hasn't widened.
- This, coupled with the fact we haven't seen fresh wides in the daily fixing error term (i.e. not beyond the -249pips surprise from last week), has seen USD/CNH push back above 6.9400 post the fixing.
- The market may have been looking for a stronger push back, particularly after yesterday's FX reserve cut. If we had of seen a fixing below 6.9000 this would have driven the error term to fresh wides for the day, that is, beyond -250pips.
Fig 1: USD/CNY Fixing Error Term Up Slightly From Recent Wides
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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