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USD/IDR Back Sub 15400 Amid Broad USD Weakness, BI Later This Week

IDR
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USD/IDR is sharply lower in the first part of Monday trade. The pair last under 15400, +0.60% higher (in IDR terms) versus closing levels at the end of last week. This puts us back to late September levels. We have broken down through the 100-day EMA (15455), while the 200-day is further south at 15307.8.

  • The rupiah is benefiting from a softer USD backdrop more broadly, with the BBDXY down a further 0.25% so far today. The break lower in USD/CNH (which is aiding the majors) is also benefiting broader Asia FX sentiment.
  • Interestingly, this recent run lower in USD/IDR is outperforming the pull back in US real yields to some extent, which steadied in the latter half of last week.
  • Still, we nearly back to YTD lows for 5yr CDS, in a sign of positive local asset sentiment. Local equities are back near 7000, fresh highs back to late September. Palm oil prices have also risen off recent lows.
  • The local data is quiet today. We have Q3 BoP tomorrow, followed by the BI decision on Thursday. The market expects a flat outcome.
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USD/IDR is sharply lower in the first part of Monday trade. The pair last under 15400, +0.60% higher (in IDR terms) versus closing levels at the end of last week. This puts us back to late September levels. We have broken down through the 100-day EMA (15455), while the 200-day is further south at 15307.8.

  • The rupiah is benefiting from a softer USD backdrop more broadly, with the BBDXY down a further 0.25% so far today. The break lower in USD/CNH (which is aiding the majors) is also benefiting broader Asia FX sentiment.
  • Interestingly, this recent run lower in USD/IDR is outperforming the pull back in US real yields to some extent, which steadied in the latter half of last week.
  • Still, we nearly back to YTD lows for 5yr CDS, in a sign of positive local asset sentiment. Local equities are back near 7000, fresh highs back to late September. Palm oil prices have also risen off recent lows.
  • The local data is quiet today. We have Q3 BoP tomorrow, followed by the BI decision on Thursday. The market expects a flat outcome.