MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Rail Passenger Numbers Break Record

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1843 Weds; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

MNI: US NOV CPI 0.3%, CORE 0.3%; CPI Y/Y 2.7%, CORE Y/Y 3.3%

MNI: US NOV SUPERCORE CPI (CORE SERVICES EX-HOUSING) 0.342%

MNI: US NOV CPI UNROUNDED M/M 0.313%, CORE 0.308%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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USD/IDR Holds Close To Recent Highs, BI Waiting For Softer USD Trend To Cut Rates

IDR

USD/IDR sits slightly higher, last near 15750. We sit just below recent highs just above this level. The pair remains is an uptrend versus lows from mid to late Feb sub 15600. Late Jan highs rest near 15850. The pair is above all key EMAs with the 20-day the nearest at 15672.

  • Comments from President Elect Prabowo crossed earlier. The incoming President is very bullish on the growth outlook, stating growth can be at 8% within 4-5yrs. The fiscal deficit can rise to 2.8% from the current 2.%, without breaching the 3% threshold.
  • Comments from BI also crossed. The central bank sees a weaker USD in H2, which should pave the way for easier policy settings under BI's financial stability focused framework. This is in line with the rough sell-side consensus.
  • Cross asset signals are generally supportive for IDR. Global equities are generally trending higher, while US real yields (10yr) have moved off recent highs. Palm oil prices also set just below recent highs. These moves have yet to drive material gains in the rupiah though.
  • Portfolio flows remain negative in the equity space, while the JCI has tracked away from recent highs.
  • In terms of the data calendar it is pretty quiet until next week (foreign reserves are out on Thursday). The next BI decision is not until the 20th of March.
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