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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
IDR
USD/IDR sits off earlier session highs, aided by the trade surplus beat. We opened around highs of 15390, which was fresh highs back to mid-March of this year, but now sit back near 15365. Session lows were at 15355. It's a similar backdrop or the 1 month NDF. Earlier highs were above 15400, but we now sit back close to 15380.
- The August trade data saw the trade surplus print double expectations at $3.12bn, versus $1.5bn projected. This is consistent with a firmer terms of trade backdrop, see the chart below.
- The surplus owed more to a downside surprise in imports (-14.77%y/y versus -9.00% projected), as opposed to better exports (-21.21% y/y, -22.6% forecast). Arguably stronger exports would be more positive for the IDR, whilst weaker imports suggests softer domestic at face value. (Non oil and gas imports were -12.1%y/y in August, prior -2.67%).
- Still, the trade surplus gives IDR some protection in an environment of elevated US real yields.
- Note as well BI will hold its first auction for new rupiah securities, known as SRBI's, to attract foreign funds and boost FX reserves.
Fig 1: Indonesia Trade Balance & Citi Indonesia ToT Proxy
Source: Citi/MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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