USD/IDR Up From Wednesday Lows, But Still Sub Key EMA Resistance Points

USD/IDR has rebounded in the first part of Thursday dealings, last near the16160 region. This is around 0.35% weaker in IDR terms versus yesterday's onshore close (16100). Yesterday's lows just under this level, and levels last seen in late May of this year.

• Topside momentum could see a test of the 50-day EMA (around 16195), although the broader backdrop for the pair still looks to be skewed towards fading upticks, amid a shifting Fed backdrop. Note further north is the 20-day EMA around 16236.
• As expected, the BI held rates steady late yesterday. The bias is to cut but FX stability remains key. The central bank wants to attract inflows, but this may be dependent on when the Fed cuts and by how much this year. The other watch point for offshore investors will be the fiscal outlook. It was announced today that incoming President Prabowo's Nephew will become the Deputy Finance Minister per RTRS.
• Offshore inflows have been modestly positive into local bonds in July to date ($284mn).
• Broader risk appetite will also be important, although Indonesia is less linked to tech sensitive trade plays. The JCI is up 1.1% in early Thursday dealings, bucking the softer regional trend. 5yr CDS is drifting higher, providing some offset to the positive local equity trend.