USD/INR Continues To Track Lower, RBI Swap Maturity In Focus Today, CPI Tomorrow

USD/INR is tracking lower in the first part of Monday trade, the pair last near 82.65, around 0.15% stronger in rupee terms. This is also fresh lows for the pair since early September last year. It also consolidates the pair's break sub the simple 200-day MA, back near 82.88.

• The market is likely to remain cautious around intervention risks, which were still evident last week, albeit not preventing a further slide in USD/INR.
• Macro positives around India's growth backdrop and portfolio flows outlook remain clear positives. The tail end of last week saw further inflow momentum into both local stocks and bonds from offshore investors.
• The other positive at the margin is the pull back in energy prices, with oil dipping from recent highs.
• On the data front, we have IP (Jan reference period) and CPI (Feb reference period) print tomorrow. The market expects CPI close to steady near 5% y/y.
• INR watchers will also be focused on how the RBI treats a $5bn swap maturing today (see this BBG link). This could impact INR forward premia.