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USD/JPY Close To Month To Date Highs

JPY

The yen was the weakest performer within G10 FX at the start of the week. USD/JPY finished around 0.80% higher for Monday's session, putting the pair back at 137.70. Overnight highs came in at 137.85, near month to date highs. A firmer US cash Tsy yield backdrop, which extended gains from Friday's session, weighed on the yen and supported the USD more broadly.

  • The short-term outlook is bullish, and a corrective cycle remains in play, following the recovery from 133.63, the Dec 2 low. This phase has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind.
  • An extension higher would open 138.70, the 20-day EMA. This average marks the first key short-term resistance.
  • The main event risk is tonight's US CPI print. Locally, the data calendar is empty today.
  • The authorities are reportedly considering introducing a minimum tax rate on incomes of 3b yen, although such a proposal wouldn't be implemented until 2025.
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