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USD/JPY Holding Above 148.00 On Firmer US Yields, BoJ In Focus Tomorrow

JPY

After making fresh highs above 148.80 late in Asia Pac trade on Friday, USD/JPY pulled back sub 148.00. This dip was supported though, and we spent the rest of the Friday session in a rough 148.00-148.50 range. In early Monday trade we sit near 148.30 in recent dealings.

  • Yen lost 1.6% last week, to be the weakest performer in the G10 space. In terms of technicals, the move higher opens 149.16 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a key short-term support has been defined at 144.36, the Jan 12 low. Clearance of this level is required to signal a top. Initial support moves up to 147.08, the Jan 17 low.
  • US yields were higher last week, as the 2yr UST rose 24bps, while the 10yr rose 18bps, as there was push back from some Fed officials on market pricing of early 2024 rate cuts.
  • This kept the US-JP yield differential backdrop skewed higher, although the 10yr spread finished slightly lower on Friday.
  • The local data calendar is empty today, with tomorrow's BoJ meeting the main focus point this week. Expectations are fairly low in terms of meaningful shifts, with most focus on the April policy meeting in terms of a shift away from negative rates.
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