USD/JPY Recovery Continues, Economists See No BoJ Change At July Policy Meeting

The Japanese yen was the second worst performer in the G10 space for Wednesday's session, down 0.59% (with GBP the worst -0.74%). USD/JPY stayed on the front foot for most of the post Asia close on Wednesday, although met resistance ahead of the 140.00 level. We finished up NY trade at the 139.65 level, which is where we track closely to in the first part of trading for Thursday.

• In terms of technicals, a move above 140.18, which is the 50-day EMA would ease bearish pressure. beyond that lies the 20-day EMA at 141.68. On the downside, the July 14 low at 137.25 should act as a support point.
• Broader USD sentiment was firmer for Wednesday's session, with the BBDXY up 0.30% to 1206.30/35. US 2yr yields finished close to session highs (4.766%) but remain within recent ranges, while 10yr yields slipped to 3.75% (-3.7bps). Equity sentiment was modestly positive in US markets, while commodity indices were mixed.
• A Blomberg survey of economists has seen the timing of a policy shift pushed back to October. 82% of economists surveyed see no change in July, with 18% expecting a shift. This is down from around a third expecting a shift in July when the last poll was conducted in June (see this link).
• On the data front today we have June trade figures first up, followed by machine tool orders later on.