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USD/KRW Holding Above Recent Lows, Domestic Focus on Fiscal Stimulus

KRW

Spot USD/KRW ended extended Tuesday trade at 1331.6, a won loss of 0.17%. The 1 month NDF ended Tuesday NY trade just under 1325, as the USD faltered through the US session amid a front end yield pull back. This may see USD/KRW spot open with a softer downside bias in the first part of trade.

  • US and EU equity indices were a touch higher in Tuesday trade. We did see some outperformance from tech related indices. The SOX rose over 1%, the MSCI IT up near 0.55%.
  • The dip in front end US yields, amid softer manufacturing survey data and increased Fed easing odds, likely helped tech equity sentiment at the margins. We have Nvidia's earnings due late Wednesday US time, which will be a focus for tech sensitive markets like South Korea early in Thursday trade tomorrow.
  • To recap, the Kospi struggled to make headway above 2700 on Tuesday, while offshore investors sold -$306.3mn of local equities.
  • The local data calendar remains empty until Friday's data prints.
  • Local focus is likely to remain on fiscal stimulus, with raised bond issuance plans for 2025 sending onshore government bond yields sharply higher yesterday.
  • For USD/KRW, downside focus remains on recent lows just under 1320, while recent highs rest near 1344. The technical backdrop continues to argue for downside tests in the pair.
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