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USD/KRW Up From Lows, But 1 Month NDF Still Close To Downside 50-day EMA Test

KRW

Spot KRW is up around 1% in the first part of Thursday trade. The pair back into the 1343/44 region (session lows at 1341.85). The 1 month NDF is 0.40% firmer in won terms, last near 1341.75, also up slightly from session lows. More broadly, the won is riding the positive risk-on wave post the FOMC, amid further US yield weakness (albeit away from session lows) and positive equity trends.

  • For the 1 month NDF we aren't too far away from the 50-day EMA, near 1338.80. We haven't been meaningfully sub this level since July of this year (see the chart below). The simple 50-day MA is also close by.
  • Local equities have surged, 2% for the Kospi, back near the 2350 level. The Kosdaq is up 3.6%. This is line with tech equity trends from Wednesday's US session, with sentiment aided by lower US real yields.
  • Earlier Oct CPI printed firmer than expected and the BoK noted after the release that future inflation was likely to exceed its August forecast (BBG).

Fig 1: USD/KRW 1 Month Close To 50-day EMA Downside Test

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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