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USD/KRW Upticks Faded As Tech Equities Rise, BoK Seen On Hold Today

KRW

* Correction in last paragraph:
Spot USD/KRW highs on Wednesday were at 1340, the pair finishing extended trade lower, just under 1334. Broader USD trends were mostly softer Wednesday, although the won finished marginally weaker (of 0.23%) for the session. The 1 month NDF ended NY Wednesday trade at 1334.4, a won loss of 0.64% for the session.

  • As we noted yesterday, some technical indicators have suggested USD/KRW downside may be more contained in the near term. Recent dips sub 1330 have been supported.
  • However, upticks in the pair will still likely be sold, given broader US trends are shifting towards Fed easing, a point reinforced by Wednesday's downside payroll revisions and the FOMC Minutes (where a July cut was considered plausible by some members). Broader USD indices look to remain in firm downtrends.
  • On the equity market front, global indices were higher on Wednesday, although gains didn't stretch much beyond 0.50%. In the tech space, we saw the SOX rebound 1.38%, while the MSCI IT rose 0.53%.
  • Today the local focus will be on the BOK decision. The firm consensus and our own bias is for no change. Focus will be on the likelihood of the easing cycle still commencing in the second half of this year against financial stability concerns, particularly in relation to resurgent Seoul house prices (see our full preview here).

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