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USD Moderately Softer In Line With Lower US Yields/Bolstered Equity Markets

FOREX
  • US yields extending their post-payrolls reversal lower to start the week, as well as a strong rally for major equity indices have moderately weighed on the USD index, which is seen 0.20% lower as we approach the APAC crossover.
  • The softer USD has been most noticeable in a strong turnaround in USDJPY, which after printing as high as 144.92 shortly after the open, briefly traded below Friday’s worst levels to print 143.66. The pair is only down 0.34%, having recovered back above 144.00, however, the trend outlook remains bearish and recent gains appear to be a correction. The move lower from Friday’s high means that resistance around the 50-day EMA - at 145.32 - is intact for now.
  • The price action helped prop EURUSD back toward the post-payrolls high on Friday at 1.0998 - which marks the interim resistance in the pair, while markets focus on 1.2770 in GBPUSD. In emerging markets, currencies have been outperforming, aiding MXN, HUF to lead the charge as positioning is eagerly monitored ahead of Thursday's key US CPI print.
  • Across G10, intra-day fx adjustments have been contained overall, perhaps with the key data later in the week sapping momentum somewhat. NOK scans as the worst performer, taking its cues from WTI crude futures ( -3.8%) heading for their lowest close since Jan. 2 as demand pessimism sweeps the market.
  • Tokyo Core CPI will cross overnight before Australia retail sales for November. Swiss currency reserves will be published in European hours on Tuesday, alongside German industrial production and European unemployment figures. US and Canadian trade balance data is also scheduled.
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