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USD/PHP Can't Sustain Early Lows, May Trade Figures Out Tomorrow

PHP

Spot USD/PHP sits just below session highs, last near 55.60. This is down slightly from Friday closing levels, but only modestly, with little follow to early USD weakness sub the 55.40 level. There has been some selling interest evident above 55.60 in recent sessions. Key EMAs remain clustered nearby, while the 200-day is slightly lower, just under 55.40. The 1 month NDF was last around 55.67, slightly above NY closing levels from Friday.

  • Lack of USD/PHP downside is indicative of broader USD trends today, with dollar losses from Friday post the payrolls print being pared to some extent today. Sticky US real yields will likely be another headwind at the margins for the PHP.
  • The authorities are cancelling $1bn in farmers debt to lift output, while approving a further 150k MT of sugar imports. in terms of local news flow.
  • Tomorrow, we get May trade data, with the market expecting the deficit to remain wide at -$4629mn.
  • Elsewhere the Finance Secretary Diokno stated lowering the debt-to-GDP ratio to 51.2% by 2028 is attainable through lower borrowings and higher growth. The authorities may also issue a retail dollar bonds in Aug/Sep if market conditions are favorable.
  • President Marco Jr is also expected to the wealth fund bill into law in the third week of July.
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