USD/PHP Close To YTD Highs Despite Better June Trade Figures

USD/PHP spot continues to gravitate higher. The pair last around 56.35/40, fresh highs back to late May of this year. The currency is now ~2.60% weaker month to date, the second worst performer in the region after KRW (down -3%). We aren't too far away from YTD highs, which came in just above 56.40. Hence the authorities may be mindful of a fresh break through this level. So, we could see verbal jawboning or actual intervention if current trends continue.

• June trade figures printed a little while ago, coming in slightly better than expected. Exports were +0.8% y/y (forecast -4.8%, prior 2.4%). Imports were -15.2% y/y, versus the -14.4% forecast. Prior was -8.1%. This meant the trade deficit was slightly better than forecast, -$3918mn, versus -4450mn expected.
• The Citi terms of trade proxy for the Philippines has edged back down recently, as energy prices have risen, although we remain well above 2022 lows.