USD/PHP Downtrend Persists, US Yields/Oil To Be Watchpoints In Light Local Data Week
USD/PHP is tracking lower in the first part of trade, the pair last near 55.48 (+0.33% firmer in PHP terms). This is another fresh low back to early August. We are now down through the simple 200-day (near 55.69), with the pair also comfortably below all key EMAs (200-day at 55.94).
- In November to date, PHP has mid-range from a broader EM Asai FX standpoint, up 2.25% at this stage. The region has enjoyed a broad based recovery against the USD over this period (KRW is the top performer +4.3%).
- USD/PHP is still some distance from mid July lows near 54.30. The BSP may choose to accumulate USDs on continued dollar losses, although equally may be happy with continued FX gains to ward off imported inflation pressures.
- The local data calendar is light this week, with just Oct overall BoP figures on tap today (the prior was -$414mn).
- This is likely to leave PHP at the whim of broader risk flows/USD sentiment. Oil prices, along with US yields, will remain key watch points. The move lwoer in USD/PHP has been aided by weaker oil prices in recent weeks.