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USD Rally Falters as Yields Roll Off Highs

FOREX
  • Early gains for the USD accompanied another surge higher for longer-end US yields, as the 10y and 30y yields crested at new cycle highs, steepening the curve in the process. The 30y yields managed to show north of 5% for the first time this cycle, a move that initially helped pressure the likes of EUR/USD and GBP/USD into the NY crossover.
  • Nonetheless, the momentum soon faded, allowing beleaguered USD pairs to recover some of this week's sharp losses. As a result, the USD was mixed through the European close, allowing GBP, EUR and CHF to trade among the best performers in developed markets. Nonetheless, the medium-term USD uptrend drawn off the July low remains intact, meaning this price action could be consolidative, rather than the beginning of any major reversal for the greenback.
  • Lastly, a pullback in oil prices worked against oil-tied currencies to leave the NOK and CAD among the poorest performers in G10. Oil prices slipped sharply to partially reverse the solid gains posted across August and September, as demand concerns peaked amid Saudi Arabia and Russia's plans to continue their policy of reduced output. The OPEC JMMC meeting came and went with little consequence.
  • Focus Thursday remains on the US labour market, as the Challenger job cuts and weekly jobless claims data provide the last look at jobs sentiment ahead of Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls. Markets look for the US to have added around 170k jobs over the month of September, with the UAW strike and the conclusion of the actors strike seen having minimal impact.
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