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USD/RUB BGN Dips Below 100 as Markets Await Kyiv's Response to the 15-Point Plan

RUSSIA
  • USD/RUB BGN trades below the 100 handle, having fallen -25.14% since Friday’s close as Russia and Ukraine make progress in negotiations.
  • This morning’s price action moves into the 28 Feb breakout gap as CBR measures provide relative stability in notably illiquid conditions - although the cross continues to trade in a wide 20-27% daily range.
  • The narrowing of negotiating positions is promising in terms of agreeing a framework for a ceasefire and grounds for a Zelensky-Putin meeting. However, Ukraine has pushed back somewhat on adopting an Austria-style model with limitations on its army.
  • Military difficulties for Russia are making its negotiating position weaker over time, with Putin losing the political battle on a number of fronts.
  • Focus now shifts the Ukraine’s response to the 15-point plan, with recognition of DPR/LPR & independence being a tough task for Zelensky as it would create internal political problems for him.
  • Additional US assistance also strengthens Kyiv’s position and does not seem likely to create scope for a wider conflict with Russia already struggling against the military challenge posed by Ukraine.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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